![[3월 24일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: 시장, 경제, 고평가된 주식, 매도, 3월 광란](https://temazu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/photo_2025-03-19_15-05-43.webp "[3월 24일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: 시장, 경제, 고평가된 주식, 매도, 3월 광란")
미국커뮤니티 요약
(상세 내용은 하단부에 첨부합니다.)
다들 주식 시장에 대해 다양한 이야기를 나누고 있네. 시장이 하락할 가능성도 언급되고, subprime loan 같은 고위험 투자에 대한 이야기도 나오는 걸 보니 불안감이 좀 있는 것 같아. 혹시 market correction이 올 수도 있다는 생각도 하는 것 같고. 반면에 copper(구리)에 대해선 bullish한 전망도 있네. Klarna 같은 debt(부채) 관리 문제는 다들 어떻게 해결하고 있는지 궁금해하는 것 같고. 전반적으로 시장 전략에 대한 논의와 함께, 내년 3월 24일 trading day에 대한 예측도 오가고 있는 분위기야.
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미국커뮤니티 상세링크
– 이런 장에서 만기일이 0일 남은 콜옵션을 산 나: 🤦♀️
Posted by: /u/MyDadIsTrevorMilton |
Date: 3/23/2025, 10:56:21 AM
“나비 효과 마켓” 🦋
Posted by: /u/Weak_Ostrich459 |
Date: 3/23/2025, 12:50:48 PM
“Well what do you mean by this? What situations aside from the tariffs?”
I’m glad you asked: -tariffs (obviously) -housing market softening -unemployment (kind of) -predictions of GDP
There’s quite literally a million things that can be listed here, theres also a million things that can be listed that are good. The market is just people, people trade based on sentiment, if they’re scared, they will feel like they should sell. Let me give you an example:
John wakes up, looks through his phone and sees 13 news articles on tariffs and potential trade wars sparking, he doesn’t think that much of it but realizes it may have carry some short term price raising at his local wally-world. He then goes to wally-world and sees that the price of his favorite avocados and maple syrup are now a bit more expensive. “Shit fuck” He says and realizes it’s now affecting him and thinks if it’s affecting him it must be affecting everyone. Coming to this realization, he thinks that companies aren’t going to keep hiking prices to keep their profit margins high without handing over the customer to their competitors. So he sells his shares in wally-world as he thinks that will happen.
Meanwhile, everyone else is thinking somewhere around this line of thinking. This spikes volatility in the market and the stock price of wally-world is falling, which causes long term investors to see this drop and capitalize on their gains from the previous bull run. Some retards see the stock falling and say “this has to bounce, there’s no way this selling momentum can keep going.” So they buy shares on the dip, which causes the price to go up, which causes others to say “it’s got upward momentum, I can buy in now and make some money.” this creates more volatility and the cycle repeats itself until eventually the news has died down and people forget about it or it gets resolved.
Moral of the story is, one person’s minute actions can tell a story of the whole even if it’s through a massive web of assumptions and predictions. An ants only purpose is to move a grain of sand onto the hill outside, have enough ants and you have something that is organized enough to where you can attempt to arbitrarily draw broad assumptions on how the any colony will evolve.
Maybe I’m just high…that’s probably it.
submitted by /u/Weak_Ostrich459
알겠습니다. ‘March Madness’는 문맥에 따라 다음과 같이 번역될 수 있습니다:* **3월의 광란**: 가장 일반적인 번역이며, 문자 그대로의 의미를 전달합니다.* **3월 대광란**: ‘대’를 붙여 더욱 강조하는 표현입니다.* **3월 미친 토너먼
Posted by: /u/Prize_Investment1447 |
Date: 3/23/2025, 1:48:55 PM
submitted by /u/Prize_Investment1447
– 모든 것이 그것을 떠올리게 해 📉🥲
Posted by: /u/Impossible_Equal87 |
Date: 3/23/2025, 2:50:16 PM
submitted by /u/Impossible_Equal87
“설마, 부실 대출을 60% 넘게 쌓아놓은 업계가 잘못될 리 없겠지 (출처: 2025년 1월 CFPB 보고서)”
Posted by: /u/-DeBussy- |
Date: 3/23/2025, 2:58:04 PM
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/Educational_Face_610 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 12:35:07 AM
What if they learned from it (smth very unlike but there is a small chance they did) and decided the best way to go is to animate the retailers to buy a big chunk of that shit so that on their books they only hold a small part of it and the loses are mainly eaten up by retail?
I know this sounds weird because either way retail gets fucked but in this option no institution has to go bankrupt or have to receive hate from general population since they can simply say: hey guys you decided to invest in smth that is highly speculative you lost it on your own, but look at us since we are pros at this we didn’t loose as much. Unlike if they would loose it it would be more of a: hey guys we tried reaching for the sun and got burned in the process.
Which in turn would explain the massive push for alternative trading platforms such as Robinhood and other online retail options. It’s just a hedge of huge institutions to make sure that when shit hits the fan they aren’t the ones holding it.
submitted by /u/Educational_Face_610
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/MarshallGrover |
Date: 3/24/2025, 4:51:03 AM
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/Alarming_Creme_8991 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 4:56:31 AM
submitted by /u/Alarming_Creme_8991
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/24/2025, 4:57:24 AM
submitted by /u/wsbapp
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/TopherBrennan |
Date: 3/24/2025, 5:04:30 AM
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow currently has a -1.8% annualized decline in real GDP for Q1 2025. What does that mean? Well, the BEA will tell you that “the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation” and “the designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)”—but that two quarters of negative GDP growth definition is pretty useful in practice. One quarter of economic contraction can be quickly forgotten, but two is generally a sign something is seriously wrong.
A -1.8% annualized decline in one quarter is only like a -0.45% actual decline, but be honest with yourself: does it look like we’re fucking done? GDPNow’s methodology is similar to the BEA’s except that instead of waiting for all the data to come in they update it continuously as new data is released. That does mean the decline could shrink as more data comes in—but it also means the inputs are all stuff that’s already actually happened, stuff like “construction spending” and “retail sales”. It doesn’t even try to model the effects of leading indicators like collapsing consumer sentiment, much less predict the future effects of policy changes.
So let’s talk about those policy changes, starting with tariffs, since those have been getting a lot of attention. We seem to be at the stage where people who want to believe everything’s going to be OK are combing through Trump’s statements for whatever scraps of reassurance they can find, which they can do because of Trump’s tendency to speak in word-salad and promise everything to everyone.
For example, here’s an answer he gave on Friday to a question in an Oval Office press conference (transcription mine):
People are coming to me and talking about tariffs and a lot of people are asking me if they can have exceptions, and once you do that for one you have to do that for all, so I mean generally, I did something interestingly during two weeks ago, I gave the American car companies a break because it would’ve been unfair if I didn’t and everybody said “oh he changed his mind on tariffs!” I didn’t change my mind I helped our, you know, sort of big three, big four, I helped some of the American companies and instead of taking it properly they said “oh he changed his—” I don’t change, but the world “flexibility”‘s an important word, sometimes there’s flexibility, so there’ll be flexibility, but basically it’s reciprocal so that if China’s charging us 50% or 30% or 20%, and I don’t mean China I mean anybody, any country, Canada, nobody knows that Canada’s charging our dairy farmers, they have 270% tariffs, nobody knows that, nobody knows that, they have up to 400%, they have a couple of tariffs, at 400%, nobody knows that, nobody talks about that.
He then went off on an extended tangent about why Canada should be a US state before ending by reiterating that “nobody knows that they were getting 270% tariffs on dairy products”. And people have, in apparent seriousness, cited this answer as a reason for optimism, because he said there will be flexibility! Beyond the obvious rebuttals, it should be noted that the example he gave of “flexibility” was a one-month pause, meaning tariffs are still coming for U.S. automakers.
The economic effects of mass-firings, along with cancelling leases and other contracts, don’t get discussed as much. But they’ll likely be quite serious. Mass-firings of federal workers could have an apocalyptic effect on the economies of Virginia and Maryland, effects by no means limits to the public sector, because those public sector employees are going to have to cut their spending at countless private businesses. Similarly, cancellation of leases threatens to crash real estate markets.
And while the many of the effects may be concentrated in the DC metro area, there are major government offices spread throughout the country, so the mass-firings and lease cancellations will create little pockets of economic pain everywhere. Some effects may even be concentrated in rural areas—like the effects of cancelling contracts to buy food from American farmers to distribute as food aid.
Then there’s the fact that many of the fired federal workers were actually doing stuff that’s really important for the US economy to functions. Firing FAA workers threatens to hurt airlines and domestic tourism. Firing people at the CDC makes it harder to fight bird flu, which is bad not just for the egg industry but also beef and dairy. And so on.
Finally there’s Trump’s immigration policies, whose effects range from farm workers being afraid to show up for work to completely fucking international tourism because apparently multi-week detentions of random tourists from Europe and Canada is a thing we’re doing now. Recently there was a forecast of a 5% decline in international tourism which under the circumstances actually strikes me as optimistic.
I suspect the main reason a lot of people resist seeing what’s staring them in the face is that during Trump’s first administration the economy did okay until COVID hit. “Util COVID hit” is a pretty big caveat, especially with RFK Jr. running HHS, but never mind that. The bigger issue is that during his first term, there were still people in both the Republican congressional caucuses and his own administration willing to tell Trump “no”. We don’t seem to have that anymore, unless you count X Æ A-12 telling him to “shush”.
So TLDR; all signs point to us already having experienced an economic contraction in Q1 2025, and there’s every reason to expect it to continue into Q2 and beyond. A recession, in other words. Of course, the question we all want to know on WallStreetBets is what this means for the stock market.
Faithful believers in the efficient market hypothesis will insist everything I’ve described and more is already “priced in”, to which I say: LOL. So far the S&P 500 has fallen 10% peak to trough, but a 10% drop is a fucking sneeze by stock market standards. I remember back in 2015 when my boss told me he was selling all his stocks because of some bullshit with China. I didn’t sell because I didn’t want to be the guy who sold at the bottom, but by the time the 2015-2016 selloff was over the S&P 500 was down 14%—over fucking nothing.
An actual recession probably means a much more severe decline in stock prices. If I believed Trump administration messaging about “temporary pain”, the precedent I’d be looking at is Paul Volker more or less causing a recession on purpose to fight inflation, which involved a 27% decline in the S&P 500. But Trump and Musk aren’t Paul fucking Volker, so I’m expecting a greater than 30% decline.
How much more than 30%? Beats me, but assuming a decline of 31.5% decline from SPY’s $612.93 peak yields a nice, easy-to-remember target price of $420. It could easily go even lower, but will almost certainly bounce back, and a lot of people aren’t going to want to miss the recovery. Therefore, I wouldn’t feel too stupid going long SPY at $420. At its current price, though, count me out.
So what do you do about it? Full-porting SPY 12/31 430p is obviously insanely risky. And unfortunately, given the range of tail-risks we’re facing—the debt ceiling, Trump deciding to actually act on previous comments that much US government debt might be fraudulent, or even fucking with the banking system—I don’t think any position is entirely safe. That said, here’s what I’ve currently got. “Other” stocks is GLD, domestic bonds are overwhelmingly TIPS:
submitted by /u/TopherBrennan
No Korean title available
Posted by: /u/Prize_Investment1447 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 6:31:59 AM
submitted by /u/Prize_Investment1447
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