[3월17일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향: 연간 배당 수익률, 분기 배당금, 주식 분석, 총 수익, 내부 거래, 약세장

Valuations are still high.
Trump admin and Musk are pushing austerity via spending cuts/mass layoffs.
Unstable tariff policy. Companies and consumers can’t plan ahead. April 2 is coming. More chaos or clarity?
Soft data has been terrible.
High-frequency and corporate data (travel, retail) all point to a rapidly deteriorating consumer.

All of that makes me worried we are headed for a recession. Banks seem to agree and have upped their forecasts for one. Three months ago this would have been laughable.
Granted, this can all change on a tweet. The trump team can pivot, make tariffs more clear & targeted, and Doge can become more work and less theater. Then, we can get to beneficial tax policies & deregulation.
I’m concerned that’s not gonna happen.
I’m concerned that Trump tariffs wont make companies move to the US & create jobs as Trump, Lutnick, and Bessent think they will. I’m concerned that people will get fired and become more poor, and Trump team will have nothing to show for it.
Now, to positioning & stocks:
I’ve been buying things that will benefit from protectionist policies, like INTC and X. I’ve also bought the dip on several big tech names & then sold them on Friday after the rally. Why? Take Nvidia, for example. Great company, but if chips aren’t excluded from tariffs, then Nvidia’s profit margins would get slashed. So would the valuation.
I’m sitting on a lump of cash & am waiting for more clarity, whether it’s up or down.
What are your thoughts?
submitted by /u/Boris_The_Unbeliever

Looking at the 2016-2019 period the company had grown tremendously its store base getting to over 1,000 stores in the US, a doubling of footprint in five years. As a result, comparable sales (sales made only in stores already opened the previous years) were starting to normalize as incremental stores were generating less footfall and the ramp-up of opened stores was getting close to their optimal productivity. Ulta was on the way to maturing gracefully.

COVID Bust & Boom: The Unexpected Turn

COVID-19 triggered a wave of “boom and bust” scenarios across various industries. Companies like ZoomInfo and Domino’s Pizza experienced significant sales increases during the pandemic, only to face normalization as the lock-downs ended. In contrast, Ulta went through the opposite trend: a bust followed by a boom, alongside sectors like hotels and spirits. Initially, the pandemic posed an existential threat to retailers like Ulta when no one could shop in stops anymore. However, as consumers found themselves with extra disposable income and a higher focus on self-care, Ulta capitalized on this shift, including through their relaunched e-commerce platform, leading to a remarkable rebound in comparable sales that surpassed pre-COVID levels.

Normalization & The Sephora@Kohl’s Threat

Under normal circumstances, we would have expected comparable sales to come down with a few weak quarters and then return to mid-to-high-single-digit industry growth post-COVID. However, in 2021, Sephora, the high-end beauty retailer owned by LVMH, launched an aggressive expansion by opening stores within Kohl’s stores, similar to Ulta’s partnership with Target. Historically, Sephora had limited U.S. locations, primarily in city centers and airports. By leveraging Kohl’s locations, they targeted the same customer base as Ulta, attracting shoppers drawn to Sephora’s “prestige” image despite an overall very similar product offering. Over the course of 3 years, Sephora opened 1,000 stores which are generating USD 1.8bn of revenue in 2024. Ulta admitted that 90% of their own stores had been impacted by new competitors’ openings and that they had lost market shares.n.

So, Is Ulta a Buy?
✅ Positives:

Ulta has an impressive history of growth, disciplined capital allocation, generous returns to shareholders and very little debt (0.7x ND/EBITDA 2024). They are participating in one of my favorite categories: Beauty, which has a track record of sustainably growing mid single digit p.a. globally (see bonus chart at the end) and they have a strong brand, impressive loyalty program, and great store locations.

❌ Concerns:

On the other hand, it is an asset-heavy business with limited scalability once stores reach optimum productivity, challenges in the online channel, and no significant international growth to date (Mexico is not yet live). They are being challenged by a very strong franchise with Sephora@Kohl’s, backed by deep-pocketed LVMH. In online they also face Amazon developing brand shops in prestige beauty with Estée Lauder.

Valuation & Takeaway

If consensus estimates hold with growth over +4% p.a. N3Y and end EBIT margin at 12.2%, with multiple remaining at 16x P/E NTM returns would be well in excess of 10% p.a. However, if growth remains weak on the back of Sephora (still targeting +11% growth in 2025 according to Kohl’s reporting) and margins fail to expand beyond 12%, then its goes down.

What do you think? Is Ulta a buy? Anything I missed?
submitted by /u/ElevatorPitchGuy

trailing returns from morning star for day end 3/14/25
SPLG 5Y 17.59% 10Y 12.53%, 15Y 13.25%
BRK.A 5Y 21.69%,10Y 13.51%, 15Y 13.01%

Total returns until 3/14/25 from Koyfin
SPLG 5Y 124%, 10Y 217%, 15Y 546%, 20Y 560%
BRK.A 5Y 167%, 10Y 248%, 15Y 526%, 20Y 755%

submitted by /u/abteckk

Wall Street’s infamous dark pools are getting even darker.
A decade after being engulfed by a controversy that culminated in multiple enforcement actions and a regulator clampdown, these off-exchange trading platforms are touting a way to buy and sell stocks that’s even more opaque.
They’re offering what are dubbed private rooms, gated venues that take the core benefit of a dark pool — the ability to hide big equity deals so they won’t impact prices — and add exclusivity, specifying exactly who can partake in any trade.
Created within the dark pools themselves, the rooms are independent from one another and each is invisible to anyone not invited, raising questions about both market transparency and fragmentation. But with more than half of all US stock trading now happening away from public exchanges, they’re in high demand from firms eager to choose whom they do business with, often to help them carry out individual orders more efficiently.
“It’s like shopping when you know exactly the item you want, and who and where you are buying or selling it from, instead of going to Walmart on Black Friday,” says David Cannizzo, the head of electronic trading at Raymond James and Associates. “You’re controlling the terms of engagement.”

submitted by /u/joe4942

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday said the correction in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq was “healthy,” and suggested that prior strong performance in stocks had been signs of a “euphoric” market.
But Bessent again said the economy needed to go through a “transition” as deficits come down and government spending declines.
“I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They’re normal. What’s not healthy is straight up, that you get these euphoric markets. That’s how you get a financial crisis,” Bessent told NBC’s “Meet the Press” Sunday.
“I’m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great,” Bessent said.

submitted by /u/joe4942