![[3월18일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: 옵션, 파산, 소매 판매, 변동성, 경기 침체, 사이버 보안](https://temazu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/photo_2025-03-17_20-35-32.webp "[3월18일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: 옵션, 파산, 소매 판매, 변동성, 경기 침체, 사이버 보안")
미국커뮤니티 요약
(상세 내용은 하단부에 첨부합니다.)
2025년 3월 17-18일, Reddit의 r/wallstreetbets 같은 투자 포럼 스냅샷인데, 분위기가 완전 롤러코스터네! 어떤 사람들은 엄청 벌고, 어떤 사람들은 완전 망하고. 주요 이야기는 역시나 위험한 옵션 거래! SPY 풋옵션, AAPL 관련해서 이야기가 많고, 소매 판매 데이터가 안 좋아서 경기 침체 걱정하는 사람들도 꽤 있어. “이번 주 월요일은 완전 depression 장이 될 거다”라는 이야기도 나오고.개인적으로는 “포트폴리오 완전 날렸다” 하는 사람도 있고, 반대로 “1010% 수익 냈다!” 하는 사람도 있고. 역시 투자는 한 방에 훅 가는 거야. HIMS, EUTELSAT, OSCR, AAPL 같은 특정 주식 이야기도 많네.글로벌 이슈도 있어. 한국이 비트코인에 대해 어떤 입장을 취하는지, 그리고 Google이 Wiz를 인수할 가능성이 있다는 이야기도 나오고. 전반적으로 보면 엄청 변동성이 심하고 투기적인 시장 분위기인 것 같아. 다들 희망과 불안을 동시에 느끼면서 투자하는 거지 뭐.
트레이딩뷰
1개월 프리미엄 무료
+ 15$ 즉시 할인
미국커뮤니티 상세링크
– 나: 옵션 매수할 때 🤑
Posted by: /u/VidE27 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 9:30:01 AM
– 조교가 괜찮아 보였어.
Posted by: /u/LeMonadeCWL |
Date: 3/17/2025, 9:49:49 AM
submitted by /u/LeMonadeCWL
나의 블랙 스완이 날개를 펼쳤어 – LMT가 휴지통으로 들어가자 풋옵션이 💥 터져버렸네!
Posted by: /u/RugbyDov |
Date: 3/17/2025, 11:21:36 AM
————————————-
I could write a separate post about why I think we are about to experience a black swan event (or really a black swan period) and I’m not sure if this particular point I am going to discuss will cause it. Either way there is a ton of money to be made on LMT in the next few hours / days / weeks or months.
Hard to know exactly when the market will realize just how much POTUS has fucked up LMT’s business and then from there I don’t know if the market will immediately see the contagion risk for other US defense companies. It may take some time for this to sink in, not sure.
Ok so about LMT – Lockheed Martin is a defense contractor. The big thing to know for this is that they make the most expensive and capable fighter aircraft (war plane for shooting down other planes and/or dropping bombs) in the world. There are huge reliability and quality issues but end of the day nothing for sale by any company on the planet can beat it and nations across the globe (Canada, UK, Germany, many other nations across Europe, etc.) have placed orders ranging from a few billion dollars to hundreds of billions for F35 aircraft and after acquisition support and maintenance. The purchase price is roughly $125,000,000 each (I’m not sure if that includes maintenance and support, I think maybe just support but there would be additional significant amounts of money going to LMT for maintenance over time).
With hundreds of billions of dollars of orders on the books, many more statements of intent from nations like Portugal, Turkiye, etc. and the associated revenue streams from maintenance, ammunition, etc. LMT has been looking pretty great since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine which sent nations across the globe scrambling to buy the bets military tech they could afford.
But that brings us to today. Where things are suddenly changing drastically and in ways that are likely not reversible, at least not in any reasonable timeframe. The market hasn’t yet priced this in and I don’t know exactly when that will happen. Could be during the April earnings release. Could be tomorrow when trading begins. Could be anytime between now and then.
See the thing is; when you are a nation that has managed to pull together a couple of billion dollars to buy military aircraft that you intend to use for the next 20, 30 maybe even 40 years, you tend to really think through the decision. There are many factors involved; not the least of which is how reliant are you on the manufacturer (and the nation that manufacturer is based in) for support and maintenance. Obviously if you can bring support and maintenance to your own nation then the dollars spent at least stay in your own country however that isn’t always possible, especially with cutting edge top of the line systems, like the F35. Anyone who owns and operates the F35 platform will need unfettered access to LMT resources and specialists in order to get anywhere close to 100% of the benefit you might expect to get from having these in your air force. Just keeping them flying without access to LMT might prove impossible, let alone using all the fancy bells and whistles which in some cases rely on access to US military satellites in orbit.
The other piece to this puzzle is that these planes take A LONG time to build. Canada ordered 88 planes for about $9,000,000,000 back in 2023 and they are expected to get their first batch of 16 sometime next year. And they have only paid for those first 16 so not much they can do about that. But there are 72 F35 planes at roughly $125,000,000 a pop that they haven’t paid for but LMT has in their order books. This is Canada I’m speaking about, the nation that POTUS keeps insisting will become part of the USA (whether they want to or not) and has been using economic extortion to try and extract trade concessions. That already made the idea of buying these additional 72 plans dicey but then you had POTUS suddenly cancel all military maintenance and support contracts between US defense contractors and Ukraine. This was walked back a bit but it made everybody sit up and think about the fact that POTUS was so mercurial that the idea of buying incredibly expensive weapons that could be hobbled on the word of POTUS maybe isn’t the best idea.
Since close of market on Friday the following has happened:
The nation of Portugal (which had previously said they intended to buy some F35s) has announced they will look for alternatives that are manufactured in Europe. These aren’t firm orders but they do represent part of the potential customer based for the F35.
Then Turkiye, who has wanted to purchase the F35 for years and was prevented from doing so due to some geopolitical stuff announced that they would buy 40 fighter aircraft from the UK. Now these planes aren’t nearly as good (or expensive as the F35) however the idea that Turkiye would invest what will end up being hundreds of millions of dollars into aircraft that aren’t F35s and more importantly aren’t from their usual military aircraft supplier (the USA) means that any future plans to purchase the F35 is now in doubt.
Canada has now announced they intend to look for alternatives to the F35 instead of moving forward with the purchase of an additional 72 planes. I don’t know if this will mean they are breaking a contract or maybe it is just rescinding a statement of intent. That is a question I don’t have the answer to at the moment but it really doesn’t matter. These were sales that are currently reflected in the LMT stock price that are now, for all intents and purposes, cancelled.
So that is my play – I am going to be buying more puts on LMT to add to what I already have over time (current position below)
https://preview.redd.it/8sccerz7s5pe1.png?width=1229&format=png&auto=webp&s=550517e5f82379d8e6f412d617ccb9a12bd68505
I was already expecting a complete market crash as a result of POTUS’ choices and actions. I’ve made some nice money in the last three weeks as a result. However I think we are just getting started and SOMETHING is going to lead to a bear market, possibly a depression. This thing with LMT could be the black swan that does it because when the market realizes the above is the reality of the situation there is a logical next thought: what about OTHER platforms and systems, whether made by LMT or other US defense contractors.
Buying Patriot air defense systems or already own some and think you might need to buy some ammunition? Maybe time to look around at diversifying your supplier for anti aircraft and anti missile systems in case POTUS decides he doesn’t like you.
What about new tanks and armored transports? Probably not the kind of thing that relies as heavily on the manufacturer but spare parts and software updates will still be needed and if you have to switch to another supplier for additional vehicles down the road you will now have multiple platforms in operation which complicates logistics, training and operations, tactical operations, etc. That can impact decision making on new purchases.
Naval vessels? Advanced radar systems to use on the weapons platform (that flies, drives or sails) which you are purchasing from a different manufacturer? These are the most complex technical systems on the planet and often have components from different manufacturers. LMT might make the plane but it uses things made by RTX and other defense companies.
And this isn’t something that you can easily fix. POTUS can promise to be nice and stay on his best behavior…. which I don’t think he would even be willing to say let alone follow through on. But even if he did say it are militaries around the world going to want to have to rely on that? Can they risk having their nation’s ability to defend itself hinge on the good will of someone who could favorably be described as inconsistent?
I don’t know if the collapse of the US defense sector will lead to a complete market crash. But I think it has a chance. Either way I’m confident something will do that and in the mean time LMT puts seem rife with opportunity at the moment.
ETA:
The USA is the biggest customer for the US arms industry, ~70% of LMT’s customers are right here in the USA:
In terms of my specific DD for this specific arms manufacturer at this specific moment in time – LMT is currently filling orders on what is the most expensive defense production run in human history. It is valued at over a trillion dollars for the life of the platform (from development, through production and to the end of post production support such as spare parts, software updates and maintenance). The vast majority of that mammoth expense was shouldered by the USA and funded design, development and early production. The plan originally was for many additional nations to place orders to meet per unit cost targets. But the system was just too expensive and there was actually a bit of a crisis from the early 2000’s up until 2022 because the USA was basically the *only* customer which meant the entire cost of the project was on the USA. Then Russia invaded Ukraine and started doing war crimes in full view of satellites. Canada who had been on the fence for years suddenly ordered 88. The UK massively upped their order. A bunch of other nations in Europe and beyond placed or expanded orders and the cost per unit has plunged. All to say that the last 10 years have been all USA and the next 10 years were supposed to be mostly Europe, Middle East, South Asia, South East Asia, Australia/NZ, etc.
Also in general I am very bearish on many industries in the USA including defense*
* https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/13/defense-stocks-drop-after-trump-says-defense-spending-could-be-halved.html
submitted by /u/RugbyDov
– 또 시작이네…
Posted by: /u/Politican91 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 12:11:04 PM
“패스트 패션 업체 Forever 21, 또 다시 파산 😥”
Posted by: /u/s1n0d3utscht3k |
Date: 3/17/2025, 1:03:39 PM
[a of shit about it being super indebted and how retailers are having difficulties, and then the relevant part to stocks]
A group of buyers — including Simon Property Group, Brookfield Corp. and Authentic Brands — teamed up to buy Forever 21 out of bankruptcy through a venture called Sparc Group. Sparc announced this year it was combining with JCPenney to form Catalyst Brands. At the time of the merger, Catalyst said it was exploring strategic options for the operations of Forever 21.
submitted by /u/s1n0d3utscht3k
– 아, 진짜 힘드네. 😩- 🐶고생 중.- 🥲 실화냐…- 🤦♀️ 쉽지 않네.
Posted by: /u/-medicalthrowaway- |
Date: 3/17/2025, 1:36:50 PM
– SPY 풋옵션으로 1010% 수익 냈다! 🧸
Posted by: /u/moonyou22 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 1:42:41 PM
대한민국, 외환보유고에 비트코인 편입 ‘불가’ 🙅♀️
Posted by: /u/Watashi_wa_sutaa |
Date: 3/17/2025, 3:12:47 PM
“HIMS는 이제 끝난 건가?” 또는 “HIMS는 망한 건가?” 정도로 번역할 수 있습니다. 🔥 이모티콘이 있다면 “HIMS는 이제 끝난 건가? 🔥” 와 같이 표현합니다.
Posted by: /u/strthrowreg |
Date: 3/17/2025, 3:49:11 PM
“EUTELSAT, 흥미로운데?”
Posted by: /u/DanBre94 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 4:50:09 PM
submitted by /u/DanBre94
2025년 3월 17일 일일 토론 스레드
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/17/2025, 6:57:31 PM
submitted by /u/wsbapp
마이크로스트레티지 폰지 사기 감시: 3월 17일, STRK 1,100만 달러 상당 발행 (+1,100만 달러)
Posted by: /u/JulianHabekost |
Date: 3/17/2025, 9:57:07 PM
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1j8k5ai/microstrategy_mstrstrk_now_officially_a_ponzi_to/
This was the dividend they declared a week ago for their 7.2M STRK shares:
On March 3, 2025, the Company announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of approximately $1.24 per share payable on the Company’s 8.00% series A perpetual strike preferred stock (“STRK”).
8K Filing
As of today we have an update how the 21B$ STRK at the market program is going
On March 17, 2025, the Company announced that, during the period between March 10, 2025 and March 16, 2025, the Company sold an aggregate of 123,000 STRK Shares under the STRK ATM, for aggregate net proceeds to the Company (less sales commissions) of approximately $10.7 million. As of March 16, 2025, approximately $20.99 billion of STRK Shares remained available for issuance and sale pursuant to the STRK ATM.
8K Filing
So if i calculate correct
old STRK dividends to pay 7.2M * $1.24 = M$ 8.928 new STRK issues net proceeds M$ 10.7
I’m not sure if his plan is to only barely cover the dividends until he runs out. If I had to guess, I’d doubt it. It looks desperate to me, as if he figured out that the market for STRK shares really is not that huge…
submitted by /u/JulianHabekost
– 소매 판매 데이터가 예상보다 부진하게 나왔습니다.
Posted by: /u/TopherBrennan |
Date: 3/17/2025, 9:59:03 PM
– 로빈후드, 예측 시장 기능 추가
Posted by: /u/Garfield0001 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 10:13:38 PM
submitted by /u/Garfield0001
– 카지노에서 또 하루를 살아남았네. 🎰
Posted by: /u/JPH-COL |
Date: 3/17/2025, 11:06:19 PM
submitted by /u/JPH-COL
– 숏 치는 거 완전 좋아 😎
Posted by: /u/Several_Use_3047 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 11:46:37 PM
it feels so good not to have any responsibility attached to a virtual stock simulator
submitted by /u/Several_Use_3047
– “애플 주식 7만 달러 투자💰”
Posted by: /u/Initial_Profile_530 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 12:14:06 AM
submitted by /u/Initial_Profile_530
– 월요일 😩 = 우울함 📉 = 경기 침체 신호
Posted by: /u/meetmebehindwendys |
Date: 3/18/2025, 12:16:22 AM
“$OSCR – 풀 포트 $60만 수익 낼 때까지 YOLO (인생은 한 번 뿐)”
Posted by: /u/CallingMargin |
Date: 3/18/2025, 12:47:51 AM
Has all the right characteristics. Michael Burry is holding with a cost basis $13.44.
Also, Josh Kushner – ties to the Trump family – recently purchased ~$20 million worth of shares , marking the first insider purchases on OSCR by Kushner (or anyone else) since 2021.
Not sure how they don’t beat.
I have 48,000 shares at a basis of $13.07
https://preview.redd.it/95291gjvs9pe1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ef082acb4d1b2554808412b62887b177402854e
submitted by /u/CallingMargin
– 경기 침체가 언제 올지는 아무도 모르지만… 징후는 분명히 있을 거예요.
Posted by: /u/Screw_Thew |
Date: 3/18/2025, 1:35:27 AM
* Puts 실패* Puts 오류 발생* Puts 처리 실패* Puts 전송 실패 😥* Puts 작업 실패
Posted by: /u/wiisports101 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 2:12:01 AM
submitted by /u/wiisports101
– 독일 금속에 1억 태웠다던가 뭐라던가 🤷
Posted by: /u/21Outer |
Date: 3/18/2025, 3:48:37 AM
제가 12월에 한국이 저평가되었다고 말씀드렸죠. 그때 다들 미국 정부가 더 안정적이고 예측 가능하니까 미국 주식을 사라고 했잖아요?
Posted by: /u/skilliard7 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:02:58 AM
– 내 포트폴리오를 완전히 망쳐놨어. 그걸 보니 좀 속이 시원해? 😉
Posted by: /u/Pokeputin |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:05:17 AM
https://preview.redd.it/9urvkaj8pape1.png?width=1418&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d1d7b110a266408f245d6a42654a129c7509183
So yeah it kinda sucks, can’t say it’s life altering, I’m 27 and make good money in IT and have no expensive tastes in anything, if we combine all of my savings it’s about 15% of it, and the whole reason I got into it is that the good ol’ index funds in my pension and other accounts just felt like meaningless numbers on screen, and I went gambling knowing well that this money may be lost.
History of this disaster:
60k -> 72k on lunr and other meme stocks(What’s funny is that I cut my losses before the launch and even made a bit on puts)
72k -> 30k on lunr and other meme stocks(What’s funny is that I cut my losses before the launch and even made a bit on puts)
30k-50k on puts
50k->almost nothing on puts
Don’t think I learned anything from it though, I will probably keep buying just spy shares until it will anger me that micro strategy pumps and then I’ll port it 100% into puts (felt good “profiting” on that)
submitted by /u/Pokeputin
“RDDT 변동성에 신의 가호가 있기를 🙏”
Posted by: /u/wutang |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:21:03 AM
– BRKB OTM Leaps 수익 – 쉬운 스윙 🚀
Posted by: /u/MyLifeIsDope69 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:21:24 AM
If you go look at the option chain 91 of the 93 volume sold today on Robinhood is from me lol just take advantage of people trying to chase when you get in around 8 dumping that all around 11 can be a sizeable profit now I can wait and buy bit by bit more again if I want when hype is lower and IV isn’t expanding. Went super long dated as essentially leveraged shares lower risk.
My plan is to keep swinging this gradually and build cash hoard to wait for the recession bottom and go long on SPY and big tech Leaps when Fed starts cutting rates.
submitted by /u/MyLifeIsDope69
– 나 혹시 콴덤인가? 🤪
Posted by: /u/Greedy-Bedroom-4301 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:34:25 AM
내일 2025년 3월 18일에 뭐 할 거야? 🗓️
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/18/2025, 4:57:32 AM
submitted by /u/wsbapp
– 대단한 건 아니지만, 솔직히 (이것도) 일이니까.
Posted by: /u/Longjumping_Trade167 |
Date: 3/18/2025, 5:49:23 AM
submitted by /u/Longjumping_Trade167
구글, 사이버 보안 스타트업 Wiz 인수 위해 300억 달러 규모의 새로운 협상 진행 중 💰
Posted by: /u/Soqks |
Date: 3/18/2025, 6:59:58 AM
– “떨어질 때 존버하고, 떨어지는 흐름에 몸을 맡겨라, 그리고 하락을 매수 기회로 잡아라! 😂🦍🚀”
Posted by: /u/Spacedjatt |
Date: 3/18/2025, 8:23:16 AM
참고링크
투자 관련 참고할 만한 웹사이트 목록입니다.