![[3월17일]-미국알트코인 커뮤니티동향: 암호화폐, 비트코인, 이더리움, 세금, 증권거래위원회, 바이낸스](https://temazu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/photo_2025-03-17_20-35-37.webp "[3월17일]-미국알트코인 커뮤니티동향: 암호화폐, 비트코인, 이더리움, 세금, 증권거래위원회, 바이낸스")
미국커뮤니티 요약
(상세 내용은 하단부에 첨부합니다.)
2025년 3월 중순, 암호화폐 시장이 완전 롤러코스터네! 변동성도 심하고 불확실성이 엄청 커. 세금 문제부터 시작해서, 예상치 못한 코인 분배, 미국 내 암호화폐 펀딩에 대한 갑론을박까지… 난리도 아냐.트럼프의 암호화폐 회사는 완전 적자 보고 있고, SEC는 새로운 암호화폐 TF까지 만들어서 규제 강도를 높이고 있대.게다가 Chainlink가 바이낸스로 엄청난 양의 LINK를 옮겼다지 뭐야. 과거 리스크 분석을 보니까 이번 불장이 얼마나 갈지 의문이라는 이야기도 나오고.David Sacks는 백악관 들어가기 전에 암호화폐 엄청 팔았다던데? 미국 주식 시장은 올랐지만, 러시아는 암호화폐로 석유 거래하고 있고, 비트코인 고래들은 레버리지 엄청 땡겨서 투자하고 있대. 대부분의 암호화폐가 하락세인데, 엘살바도르는 계속 비트코인 줍줍하고 있고, 북한은 해킹으로 비트코인 엄청 획득해서 주요 정부 보유자가 됐다네. 사람들 반응도 제각각이야. 이번 불장이 왜 계속되는지 혼란스러워하는 사람도 있고, 이더리움 실망했다는 사람도 있고… 에휴, 다들 힘내자고!
트레이딩뷰
1개월 프리미엄 무료
+ 15$ 즉시 할인
미국커뮤니티 상세링크
2025년 3월 16일 데일리 암호화폐 토론 (GMT+0)
Posted by: /u/CryptoDaily- |
Date: 3/16/2025, 9:01:10 AM
Disclaimer:
Consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known “pump and dump (PnD) groups” for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.
Please be careful about what information you share and the actions you take. Do not share the amounts of your portfolios (why not just share percentage?). Do not share your private keys or wallet seed. Use strong, non-SMS 2FA if possible. Beware of scammers and be smart. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose, and do not fall for pyramid schemes, promises of unrealistic returns (get-rich-quick schemes), and other common scams.
Rules:
All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
Behave with civility and politeness. Do not use offensive, racist or homophobic language.
Comments will be sorted by newest first.
Useful Links:
Beginner Resources
Intro to r/Cryptocurrency MOONs 🌔
MOONs Wiki Page
r/CryptoCurrency Discord
r/CryptoCurrencyMemes
Prior Daily Discussions – (Link fixed.)
r/CryptoCurrencyMeta – Join in on all meta discussions regarding r/CryptoCurrency whether it be moon distributions or governance.
Finding Other Discussion Threads
Follow a mod account below to be notified in your home feed when the latest r/CC discussion thread of your interest is posted.
u/CryptoDaily- — Posts the Daily Crypto Discussion threads.
u/CryptoSkeptics — Posts the Monthly Skeptics Discussion threads.
u/CryptoOptimists- — Posts the Monthly Optimists Discussion threads.
u/CryptoNewsUpdates — Posts the Monthly News Summary threads.
submitted by /u/CryptoDaily-
“세금 계산할 때 Koinly랑 Cointracker에서 결과가 너무 다르게 나와 😵”
Posted by: /u/Original-Assistant-8 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 11:36:53 AM
For me, I had become concerned about my wallet’s security, so I moved the assets to a new address.
Even though I added both wallets, koinly logged my dates as short term gains and a couple thousand more in gains. I knew that most of my sales were after more than a year of holding, but seems the transfers were treated as if I had freshly acquired the assets.
I decided to try coin tracker which turbotax integrates with. Using that service it counted most gains as long term which aligned with what I thought. Sadly I had to pay for both services to learn this, but it just didn’t seem right to be paying short term gains when I’ve held through a helluva lot. This isn’t an endorsement, but if you transferred assets, say to cold storage and then sold, be sure to check the acquisition dates. I’m sure someone will tell me somehow moving wallets counts as a sale, but I’ll go with the results from the software integration turbotax and coin tracker have. It seemed to match my expectations.
submitted by /u/Original-Assistant-8
내 레저에 뜬금없이 공짜 코인이 엄청 많이 들어왔네? 😮
Posted by: /u/YeshuaSavior7 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 12:47:25 PM
Opened the thing up this week and there are literally hundreds if not thousands of free coins by various names in there now.
I assumed airdrops.
But I heard something about some of these being scams. If they’re in the ledger, are they safe to redeem?
Or is the scam that you have to download their Wallet app and that software is basically going to clean out my balances?
submitted by /u/YeshuaSavior7
미국인의 10%만이 암호화폐에 대한 연방 정부 자금 지원 확대를 지지하며, 대다수는 반대하는 것으로 나타났습니다: 여론 조사 결과 📊
Posted by: /u/KIG45 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 4:23:31 PM
도널드 트럼프의 암호화폐 회사 WLFI, 이더리움 기반으로 8800만 달러 손실 📉
Posted by: /u/hiorea |
Date: 3/16/2025, 4:50:14 PM
“브래드 갈링하우스: 아마존이 책에 했던 역할을 리플이 국경 간 결제에서 할 것이다”
Posted by: /u/Abdeliq |
Date: 3/16/2025, 4:57:10 PM
SEC 헤스터 퍼어스 위원, 새로운 암호화폐 태스크 포스에 대해 논하다
Posted by: /u/Savi321 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 5:26:00 PM
“코인 추적: 거래소에서는 무슨 일이 일어날까?” 🪙
Posted by: /u/WH1PL4SH180 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 5:52:51 PM
P2P it’s easy, follow the coin exit one wallet into another. However how do we track outflows to/from exchange.
From what I can gather, exchanges appear publicly like “black boxes”. We have no idea what goes on inside them. Unless an exchange pays special attention, there’s no (public) way to track movements within the exchange either.
Also, As it seems the majority of trades occur on CEXs, is there any way to see total trades of any coin as an totality across all exchanges and off exchange transactions?
submitted by /u/WH1PL4SH180
체인링크, 2억 6,200만 달러 상당의 1,900만 LINK 토큰 언락 후 대부분 바이낸스로 전송: 온체인 데이터 🔗💰 – The Daily Hodl
Posted by: /u/Illperformance6969 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 6:39:32 PM
– 11월 BTC 거래량
Posted by: /u/Hopeful_Meeting_7248 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 7:21:30 PM
Recently I started to pay attention to trading volume of Bitcoin and I noticed it’s insanely low (less than 1% of market cap). And that made me wonder, how did it look in the past? Like during rally in November. I can imagine it was way bigger, but how much exactly? In recent weeks I noticed that volume increased to max 70 billion (vs 11,6 billion right now).
If I interpret it correctly, most of Bitcoin as of right now is owned by the whales or other institutions and I wonder if that may hamper future growth?
submitted by /u/Hopeful_Meeting_7248
러시아 중앙은행, 부유층의 암호화폐 투자 허용 제안 💰
Posted by: /u/Dongerated |
Date: 3/16/2025, 7:38:10 PM
– “불장 끝났나? 🤔 역사적 리스크 분석”
Posted by: /u/AlexWasTakenWasTaken |
Date: 3/16/2025, 8:26:25 PM
Always keep in mind:
All models are wrong, but some are useful. – George Box
We’ll capture the market by taking a weighted average of my favorite metrics:
Alphasquared (link) – 40%
https://preview.redd.it/fq2kwiikd1pe1.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=e24760e2e72477bf62fe521f7c0bf28431605e53
This one is my most trusted metric and what I’ve used for almost two years now to DCA. It was the only one to pinpoint the Bear Market perfectly. With the best track record of all, we weigh this at 40%.
The current Risk is: 43 out of 100 (down from 60.8)
Benjamin Cowen (YouTube) – 30%
https://preview.redd.it/d1d13w3ld1pe1.png?width=2754&format=png&auto=webp&s=f1a535e60835e5218152d5f8990bb6bc4220e2f5
This one missed the 2022 bottom by a fair bit and it seems to have been quite high when we reached 73 risk. I like to diversify my indicators and there’s a certain reputation around this so I’ll include it, albeit at a lesser weight of 30%
The current Risk is: 49 out of 100 (down from 60.6)
RSI (link) – 20%
https://preview.redd.it/hfrt7xamd1pe1.png?width=2069&format=png&auto=webp&s=ddbbd6a01bbbdd05d65baaea96c82583927f5d90
We all know the RSI. It’s a trusty indicator, albeit a simple one. This is a weekly timeframe.
The current Risk is: 47.7 out of 100 (down from 68.8)
CBBI (link) – 10%
https://preview.redd.it/d1w0wybnd1pe1.png?width=1110&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4f82a821fcda6d571cfd003ae8851b064c913c5
This one missed both the top in 2021 and the bottom in 2022, but not by a huge margin. It has since been refitted without mention, but we’ll still include it with 10% weight.
The current Risk is: 70 out of 100 (down from 81). Still elevated but no longer in strong selling territory!
Now, let’s combine all of these:
Indicator Weight Current Risk Weighted Risk
Alphasquared 40% 43 17.2
Benjamin Cowen 30% 49 14.7
RSI 20% 47.7 9.54
CBBI 10% 70 7.0
Totals 100% 48.4 out of 100
What This Means
Our weighted risk score has dropped from 64.4 to 48.4 out of 100. This puts us in more neutral territory compared to the elevated risk we saw two months ago. It’s worth noting that every previous bull run has featured multiple corrections of 30-40% before reaching the actual market top.
The Importance of Strategy
Having a clear strategy remains crucial during these market fluctuations. If risk continues decreasing, this presents an opportunity to accumulate at better prices. Conversely, if risk begins climbing again in the coming months, a disciplined DCA-out approach becomes important.
The worst approach would be to get disinterested and leave the space after incurring losses. Remember that lower risk environments are precisely when accumulation becomes most beneficial. Even if we enter a bear market, which can be painful and boring, this is historically when the groundwork for significant returns is established.
The core principle remains: the lower risk goes, the more you should consider buying. The higher risk goes, the more you should consider taking profits in incremental steps.
TL;DR: The recent 25% drop from ATH has significantly lowered our risk metrics from 64.4 to 48.4. Historical patterns suggest this is a correction rather than the end of the bull market (see charts).
submitted by /u/AlexWasTakenWasTaken
백악관, 데이비드 색스가 임명되기 전에 2억 달러 상당의 암호화폐 자산을 매각했다고 확인
Posted by: /u/lakantala |
Date: 3/16/2025, 8:35:26 PM
– 반등할 때가 된 걸까? 미국 주식 시장 1조 3천억 달러 상승, 러시아는 암호화폐로 석유 거래. 📈💰🇷🇺🛢️
Posted by: /u/Express_Classic_1569 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 9:30:33 PM
알루미늄 관세와 비트코인
Posted by: /u/Familiar-Worth-6203 |
Date: 3/16/2025, 9:48:11 PM
What this means is that if indeed the aluminium tariffs promote (by design or otherwise) the repatriation of smelting capacity back to the United States, i.e., the building of new smelters on the mainland, which hasn’t been done in 40 odd years, there will be more competition for the cheap power that the BTC miners currently exploit. I’m thinking, in particular, about some of the renewable ‘excess’ that the miners like to use.
In considering this potential headwind to profitable mining in the US, and what it may mean for the security of the blockchain, bear in mind it can take 8-10 years to get a smelter up and running.
Note: there is also a forecasted growth in AI datacentre electricity demand.
submitted by /u/Familiar-Worth-6203
FOMC 앞두고 비트코인 고래, BTC 하락에 40배 레버리지로 3억 6,800만 달러 베팅 🐳💰📉
Posted by: /u/hiorea |
Date: 3/17/2025, 12:22:06 AM
비트코인과 이더리움이 고전하는 가운데 암호화폐의 72%가 하락세를 보임 – 시장 및 가격 동향 (Bitcoin News) 📉📉
Posted by: /u/Abdeliq |
Date: 3/17/2025, 12:44:33 AM
– 길을 잃은 기분인가요? 이더리움을 3년 동안 보유하고도 80%나 폭락하는 것을 지켜본 사람들도 있습니다. 📉
Posted by: /u/kirtash93 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 1:55:21 AM
“북한, Bybit 해킹 사건 이후 세계 3위의 정부 보유 비트코인 국가 등극”
Posted by: /u/kirtash93 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 2:47:27 AM
– “이 불장이 왜 아직 안 끝났는지 설명해 주실 분?”
Posted by: /u/Lefterman |
Date: 3/17/2025, 3:49:39 AM
I remember buying some crap bags in 2021 at the peak, people yelling left and right Cardano to 10 and Solana to 500, only for it to end and the hype dying down.
I keep looking at graphs, trying to convince myself as much as letting others yelling XRP TO 100 and Bitcoin to 250k convince me to buy some because it has not ended, but honestly judging by the past experience and graphs it feels like there’s gonna be that final small pump soon which won’t compare to the previous one, and then we ‘re going into bear again.
Can you please share your point of view on this?
submitted by /u/Lefterman
– 일요일의 여유 🍹
Posted by: /u/GrimbosliceOG |
Date: 3/17/2025, 4:13:46 AM
submitted by /u/GrimbosliceOG
엘살바도르, 또 다시 비트코인 폭락을 틈타 매수! 💰 국가적 스케일로 ‘줍줍’하는 중 🚀
Posted by: /u/kirtash93 |
Date: 3/17/2025, 4:21:19 AM
– 비트코인 시장 주기: 현재 우측 이동 주기인가, 좌측 이동 주기인가?
Posted by: /u/nerdben |
Date: 3/17/2025, 5:47:02 AM
👉 Are we in a right-translated cycle with more upside ahead, or has Bitcoin already peaked, signaling a prolonged bear market?
This post is based on a discussion paper I’ve published a few days ago (Full read / PDF) exploring six key macroeconomic and market indicators shaping Bitcoin’s current cycle and what they mean for future price appreciation.
Recap on Bitcoin’s Market Cycles
Bitcoin follows a four-year cycle, historically peaking 12-18 months post-halving. But this cycle is different – Bitcoin hit an all-time high BEFORE the halving for the first time ever. The current cycle (measured from the last bottom) began in early November 2022.
Four-Year Bitcoin Market Cycles
I assume two market cycle scenarios:
Right-Translated Cycle (Bullish) → Extended uptrend, peak closer to 2025-2026
Left-Translated Cycle (Bearish) → Early peak, prolonged downturn
🔥 So, which one are we in?
In the following let’s take a look on key indicators driving Bitcoin’s market cycle and examine their current trends, outlooks, and potential macroeconomic implications.
1. M2 Global Supply (Liquidity)
Expanding again but slower than previous cycles
If liquidity continues rising, it supports a right-translated cycle
M2 Global Supply (taken from 21 central banks)
2. Core PCE Inflation (Fed’s Key Inflation Measure)
Inflation still above 2% target but declining
Fed policy decisions and unemployment trends will determine whether inflation stabilizes or rebounds. The risk of stagflation needs to be monitored.
If inflation remains sticky, Fed may delay rate cuts → Left-Translated Cycle
Core PCE Inflation
3. Unemployment Rate
Stabilized at 4.1%, but risks of job losses are rising
Current U.S. administration’s layoff policies need to be monitored (we’ll know more with the upcoming jobs report on April 4, 2025)
If inflation stays high despite rising unemployment, the Fed faces a tough choice: keep rates high, risking economic distress, or cut them to boost jobs while fueling inflation. This decision will be key to 2025’s macro outlook.
If unemployment spikes, Fed may cut rates sooner → Right-Translated Cycle
Unemployment Rate
4. Fed Funds Rate
Rates Targets were cut to 4.50% but remain high
If rate cuts accelerate, lending stimulation and credit expansion will increase overall liquidity in the financial system → Right-Translated Cycle,
If rates stay high → Left-Translated Cycle
Fed Funds Target Rates
5. NASDAQ Composite (Stock Market Correlation)
Peaked in Dec 2024, currently declining
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has exhibited a strong correlation with equities. A downturn in equity markets can lead to weakened investor confidence in speculative assets, increasing selling pressure on cryptocurrencies, particularly in a left-translated cycle.
If stocks rebound → Bitcoin follows (bullish)
If stocks keep dropping → Bitcoin likely enters Left-Translated Cycle
NASDAQ Composite
Lastly, I examined ETF Net Flows, which have been crucial this cycle and closely correlate with price action.
6. ETF Net Flows (Institutional Demand)
Net inflows turned negative in Feb 2025
The significant outflows observed since late February 2025 suggest waning institutional confidence in the market. If net flows remain negative for an extended period, this can serve as a bearish signal, indicating sustained selling pressure and potential downside risk.
If inflows resume → Right-Translated Cycle
If outflows continue → Left-Translated Cycle
ETF Net Flows
Let’s discuss the scenarios:
Scenario 1: Left-Translated Cycle Scenario
With Bitcoin reflecting risk-off sentiment since February 2025, the likelihood of a left-translated cycle has become increasingly relevant. In contrast to previous post-halving cycles, where Bitcoin’s peak typically occurred 12–18 months after the halving, this scenario suggests that Bitcoin may have already reached its cycle high on January 20, 2025. By continuously delaying further rate cuts, the Fed keeps liquidity tight and weakening stock markets drag Bitcoin lower. This means, the market is about to enter a prolonged bear phase lasting up to 1.5 years, if aligning with the time frames observed in the last two cycles.
Supporting arguments for Scenario 1:
ETF adoption absorbed liquidity too early. The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 led to massive institutional inflows in Q3 and Q4 2024. Bitcoin ETFs absorbed liquidity during a phase of expanding M2 Global Supply, creating an early demand surge that front-loaded buying pressure and was unique to this cycle.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high before the halving. In all previous cycles, Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) came 12-18 months after the halving. This cycle, Bitcoin hit an ATH at $73K$ before the April 2024 halving – a first in Bitcoin’s history.
Liquidity tightened post-Q2 2024. While M2 Global expanded during Q1 and Q2 2024, liquidity conditions tightened in Q3 and Q4 as the Fed maintained high interest rates and repeatedly postponed rate cuts before finally lowering rates to 475 bps in December 2024.
ETF netflows have turned negative. Since February 2025, ETF Net Flows turned negative, suggesting institutions are de-risking or taking profits.
NASDAQ Composite and Bitcoin are showing correlated weakness. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a risk-on/risk-off pattern with equities. The NAS- DAQ Composite peaked in Q4 2024, and since then, market sentiment has weakened.
Quantitative Easing is not the Fed’s tool of choice. The Fed has not signaled any immediate plans for Quantitative Easing (QE).
Validity of Scenario 1:
The early peak in ETF-driven demand has reduced the likelihood of a sustained post-halving rally, including a blow-off phase. Net inflows from Bitcoin ETFs turned negative in Q1 2025, indicating that institutional investors are already taking profits rather than accumulating, limiting further upside potential. In past cycles, the post-halving supply shock was a key driver of price appreciation. However, this cycle deviates from historical norms as Bitcoin peaked pre-halving, suggesting that demand was pulled forward and exhausted earlier than expected.
While the U.S. economy has avoided recession longer than anticipated, recession risks remain. A risk-off environment can further dampen institutional demand for Bitcoin, reinforcing downward price pressure. Additionally, the Fed’s cautious stance has restrained speculative sentiment, preventing the retail-driven euphoria that typically characterizes late-cycle market behavior. Meanwhile, M2 Global liquidity growth has slowed, and elevated borrowing costs are constraining new debt issuance, limiting the flow of fresh capital into risk assets.
If the stock market enters a prolonged correction, Bitcoin is unlikely to decouple and may face continued selling pressure. Historical left-translated market cycles, such as the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2007 financial crisis, saw tech stocks peaking early, only to decline sharply. Bitcoin, strongly correlated with equities and representing a liquidity- sensitive asset, follows a similar trajectory.
Scenario 2: Right-Translated Cycle Scenario
The recent 30% decline in Bitcoin’s price remains within the bounds of a typical market correction, given the asset’s historically high volatility in an open and liquid market (comparable to April–May 2021). This does not necessarily indicate a deviation from the expected right-translated cycle structure. Based on the last two cycles, Bitcoin is projected to reach its cycle peak approximately 1,050 days after the previous market bottom, placing the expected peak in early Q4 2025. In the mid-term, supportive economic policies from the current U.S. administration, along with expected monetary easing from the Fed in early H2 2025, provide the foundation for renewed market growth.
Supporting arguments for Scenario 2:
Post-election year market weakness is historically temporary. Historically, post-election years tend to be weak for equities from February to April before rallying in the second half of the year.
Historical cycle timing still leaves room for a second peak. The past two market cycles have lasted for 12-18 months post-halving before topping out.
M2 Global money supply has been expanding again. Despite a resumed growth phase in H2 2024, the M2 Global has been expanding again, increasing available liquidity.
Inflation is slowly decreasing towards the Fed’s 2% target. After taking a break from its rapid decrease in H2 2024, the Core PCE (YoY) is again on track reaching the Fed’s target rate of 2% setting the ground for looser financial conditions.
Unemployment is not rising. The Unemployment Rate has stabilized rather than surging with the labor market remaining strong enough to prevent a full economic contraction. Historically, deep bear markets require rising unemployment, which is not occurring.
ETF net outflows have been declining again. Recent data shows declining outflows suggesting that at some point inflows will resume and lead to renewed institutional demand.
Validity of Scenario 2:
Historically, the right-translated cycle has been the base case in previous Bitcoin market cycles, following a typical 12–18 month post-halving rally. The current downturn in Q1 2025 appears to be seasonal rather than cyclical, largely influenced by post-election year market weakness, which has historically resolved with a recovery in the second half of the year.
Macroeconomic indicators suggest that the risk of a severe recession remains lower than feared, reducing the likelihood of further liquidity tightening. The labor market re- mains stable, with unemployment rates not surging, allowing for continued economic expansion. Additionally, inflation is steadily declining toward the Fed’s 2% target, strengthening expectations for rate cuts in H2 2025. If the Fed follows through on this, looser financial conditions will result in M2 expansion, improving overall market liquidity and risk-on sentiment.
ETF net outflows have been gradually declining, indicating that selling pressure is easing. A shift from net outflows to net inflows will signal a renewed phase of institutional demand, which reinforces the right-translated scenario. If these factors align positively, Bitcoin will follow historical cycle timing, with a potential cycle peak in early Q4 2025.
CONCLUSION
Both a right- and left-translated cycle scenario can be supported by strong arguments, reflecting the market’s current state of macroeconomic uncertainty. Core macro indicators have yet to establish sustained long-term trends, which may be attributed to the new U.S. administration’s mixed and partly contradictory policies. However, such uncertainty is not uncommon in early post-election years. Ultimately, the key determining factor will be the trajectory of monetary policy leading into summer 2025, particularly whether M2 Global expands, as historical data suggests a strong correlation between its growth and Bitcoin price developments.
So far, the Fed has refrained from reintroducing rate hikes, primarily due to stabilizing unemployment rates. Additionally, declining inflation supports the case for further rate cuts. If this trend continues and unemployment remains stable or declines, the probability of monetary easing increases, strengthening the foundation for a right-translated cycle with renewed, growing demand.
However, the long-term economic implications of the administration’s policies, particularly its re-industrialization agenda and reshoring efforts, must be closely monitored. Recent layoffs and potential increases in the unemployment rate can negatively impact sentiment, reducing the probability of expansionary fiscal policies. Additionally, the introduction of new tariffs introduces further uncertainty. While tariffs may temporarily boost domestic employment, the higher import costs can drive inflation higher, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts and tightening liquidity conditions.
From mid-April 2025, with fresh labor market and inflation data available, along with another Fed testimony, the probabilities of a left- versus right-translated cycle will become clearer.
TL;DR: Bitcoin’s cycle hinges on macro conditions & liquidity. A Right-Translated Cycle means more upside into 2025-2026, while a Left-Translated Cycle suggests Bitcoin already peaked in Q1 2025. Declining inflation and stable or falling unemployment increase the likelihood of rate cuts, reinforcing a right-translated cycle with renewed demand.
Read the full discussion paper here or download PDF from here.
Critical Reflection: My approach heavily emphasizes macro indicators, as I view liquidity and monetary policy as the primary market drivers. I also focus on the two scenarios I find most likely, though I acknowledge the market could evolve differently. Factors like diminishing returns might even mean that traditional cycle patterns no longer hold.
submitted by /u/nerdben
– “꼭대기에서 샀으니 이제 기술에 올인한다” 🚀
Posted by: /u/InclineDumbbellPress |
Date: 3/17/2025, 7:10:08 AM
“찰스 호스킨슨, 열등감에 찌든 쪼다 confirmed”
Posted by: /u/002_timmy |
Date: 3/17/2025, 8:41:57 AM
– 크로 투표 통과
Posted by: /u/fIreballchamp |
Date: 3/17/2025, 8:49:11 AM
It looks like at the last minute enough votes came in to pass the cro vote so now they are going to have some insane inflation and reissue previously burnt tokens. It seems like the whales manipulate the vote again and do as they please despite the unpopularity of such actions. The little people always get screwed.
I started with cro a few years ago and haven’t used the credit card once since they removed the Netflix promotion and the better rewards. Cronos has gone steadily downhill and it is sad.
submitted by /u/fIreballchamp
참고링크
투자 관련 참고할 만한 웹사이트 목록입니다.