[3월 25일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: 터키, 경제, 붕괴, 관세, 테슬라, 수익

Turkey’s economic collapse imminent

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Tate-s-ExitLiquidity |
Date: 3/24/2025, 10:21:41 AM

TLDR: Aug 15’25 $TUR $30 Put Market to Open tomorrow morning if trading allowed and here’s why:

Political unrest amid jailing political opponents
Just today opposing party leaders announced widespread boycotts – 50m+ people total cohort size
Turkey’s current financial system is flawed, they rely on high interest government bond sales to finance USD-TRY imbalance

1. Analysis of Current Reserves:

As of March 2025, Turkey’s total (gross) foreign exchange reserves are approximately $85 billion.
However, most of these reserves consist of swap agreements and external debts; the actual (net) reserves are likely close to zero or even negative.
The truly available (liquid) reserves for rapid intervention are, at best, around $20–40 billion.

2. Activities That Could Rapidly Erode Reserves and Their Effects (Data Supported):
The following scenarios could rapidly deplete the reserves in the short term:
Mass Bond Sales and Foreign Exchange Purchases

If 30 million people convert an average of $500 per person from TRY to USD, it would result in a reserve loss of $15 billion in a short time.
(30 million people × $500 = $15 billion)

• Mass Withdrawal of Deposits from Banks (Bank Panic)

The total deposits in the Turkish banking system amount to approximately $450 billion.
Even if only 5% of these deposits are withdrawn in a panic (about $22.5 billion), it could deplete more than half of the reserves in one go.

Tax Payment Refusals and Consumer Boycotts

Turkey’s annual tax revenue is approximately $150 billion (2024 budget).
Even a short-term 20% tax boycott (a loss of about $2.5 billion per month) would create a serious budget deficit within a few months.

Boycotts of Critical Sectors such as Energy and Transportation

Turkey’s monthly energy imports average about $5 billion.
Even an extra crisis cost of 20% in this area could result in an additional monthly reserve loss of $1 billion.

Widespread Labor Strikes

A general strike lasting just one week in Turkey would cost approximately $4–5 billion.
Strikes lasting several weeks could rapidly deplete the reserves.

👉 Total estimated short-term reserve loss (within one month):
It could be around $20–40 billion, which is nearly equivalent to all of Turkey’s actual liquid reserves.
3. Timeline Scenarios for Collapse (Supported by Figures):
🔴 Aggressive Scenario (Full Bank Attack and Demand for Foreign Exchange):

If 10% of bank deposits are withdrawn, it would create a cash need of about $45 billion.
The current liquid reserves (assumed to be around $30 billion) would not be able to meet this demand.
The economy and banking sector could collapse within 7–14 days.

🟠 Moderate Scenario (Partial Capital Outflow and Consumer Boycotts):

Demand for foreign exchange, tax losses, and reduced consumption would push the monthly reserve loss to around $5–10 billion.
The existing reserves could be depleted in about 2–3 months, bringing the economic crisis to a critical point.

🟡 Controlled Scenario (Strict Capital Controls and External Financial Support):

Capital outflows could be limited to $1–2 billion per month.
With IMF or external support (for example, $10–15 billion), the endurance of reserves could be extended to 6–12 months.

I think this will lead to a government shutdown or change of power in the end. I don’t see a humane way current government regaining back control without going bankrupt. If they do, it will be through terrorizing their own people and hijacking their bank accounts and other assets. If you make money out of this, I will suggest you sell when you see decent profits and buy yourself something nice. Be quick to exit this one.
EDIT: Turkey just BANNED short selling on the Istanbul Stock Exchange for one month.
When short selling is banned, you know that BIG TROUBLES are always right around the corner.
Stay tuned.
submitted by /u/Tate-s-ExitLiquidity

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Which one of you did i come across?

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/idkdc1031 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:03:07 AM

Are you out there giving financial advice to unsuspecting SF folk?
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Anytime I hear the words “burrito payments”

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/TimeDamage5446 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:53:16 AM

Time to dust off the helmet 🪖
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You’re Honestly Retarded if Your’re Not Buying Puts Right Now- 32k yolo

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Evening-Round-6051 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 12:11:34 PM

submitted by /u/Evening-Round-6051

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White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/SalehD13 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 12:23:30 PM

The White House plans to scale back tariffs originally set to take effect on April 2, focusing them more narrowly on select industries. This decision is part of the administration’s strategy to apply targeted trade measures while continuing negotiations on broader trade issues. The move is also seen as an effort to ease concerns among businesses affected by the looming tariffs. The administration aims to balance protecting U.S. industries with maintaining international economic relationships. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-reciprocal-deadline-industrial-delay-97508838
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Daily Discussion Thread for March 24, 2025

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/24/2025, 6:57:32 PM

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BUY EVERYTHING

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Mister_Lonely_ |
Date: 3/24/2025, 8:45:26 PM

submitted by /u/Mister_Lonely_

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Anthony Bourdain saw The Burrito CDO™ coming

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/RidavaX |
Date: 3/24/2025, 9:35:27 PM

submitted by /u/RidavaX

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Redemption! $800 to $11.5k, on +1 DTE SPY.

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/OnlyFear1 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 9:49:44 PM

Bombed this brokerage account from $11k to $800, worked my way back to being $250 up overall.
submitted by /u/OnlyFear1

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RECESSION IS CANCELED (Temporarily)

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/imonkaS |
Date: 3/24/2025, 10:01:45 PM

Few days of rallying until we are back into Kang gang territory again! Someone save my TSLA puts!!
submitted by /u/imonkaS

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Made 15k USD PRE MARKET SPX gooood morning wagyu for breakfast I guess

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/meetmebehindwendys |
Date: 3/24/2025, 10:03:57 PM

submitted by /u/meetmebehindwendys

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Volkswagen, BMW group electric cars outsell Tesla in Europe in February

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/callsonreddit |
Date: 3/24/2025, 10:22:21 PM

(Reuters) – Tesla (TSLA) EV sales in Europe have fallen in February behind legacy brand Volkswagen (VOW3.DE, VLKPF) and the BMW (BMW.DE) group, as well as rivals from China, data by research platform JATO Dynamics showed on Monday.
Elon Musk’s all-electric brand is facing a loyalty test in Europe after the close ally of U.S. President Donald Trump openly supported far-right parties in the continent, including with at least two dozen posts on his X platform promoting Germany’s Alternative fur Deutschland.
Musk’s role in politics, rising competition in the EV market and the phasing out of the existing version of its best-selling vehicle, the Model Y, have all impacted sales, Felipe Munoz, Global Analyst at JATO Dynamics, said in a report.
“Brands like Tesla, which have a relatively limited model lineup, are particularly vulnerable to registration declines when undertaking a model changeover,” Munoz said.
Tesla’s battery-electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in 25 European Union markets, the UK, Norway and Switzerland fell on average by 44% from the same month of 2024, to under 16,000 cars sold in February. Its market share in the month fell to 9.6%, the lowest February reading in the last five years.
By comparison, Volkswagen’s BEV sales were up 180% to under 20,000 cars, while the BMW brand and BMW-owned Mini, combined, sold almost 19,000 BEVs in February, the data showed.
Chinese-owned brands, combined, also sold more electric cars than Tesla, JATO Dynamics said.
BYD’s (1211.HK, BYDDY) and Polestar’s (PSNY) BEV sales in the same markets were up respectively 94% and 84% to over 4,000 and over 2,000 cars. Xpeng (XPEV, 9868.HK) sold over 1,000 cars and Leapmotor (9863.HK) almost 900.
BEV sales at Geely (0175.HK, GELYF) -owned Volvo and SAIC (600104.SS)-owned MG, instead, dropped by 30% and 67% respectively, the data showed.
Total car sales in 25 European Union markets, the UK, Norway and Switzerland dropped by 3% to 0.97 million in February, while BEV registrations were up by 25%.
submitted by /u/callsonreddit

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I’M NOT F*CKIN LEAVING!

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/NYGiants1532 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:34:51 PM

Started buying on March 6th – all the way thru last week. Not sure when I’m selling.
submitted by /u/NYGiants1532

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Intuitive Machines Stock Soars on Sales, Outlook After Moon Mission Failure

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/callsonreddit |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:36:24 PM

Shares of Intuitive Machines (LUNR) flew nearly 20% higher Monday when the space technology provider’s sales and backlog soared, and it issued a rosy outlook as it added new customers.1
The positive news came just two weeks after the company’s lunar lander mission ended following a landing mishap, which had sent shares tumbling.
Intuitive Machines reported fourth-quarter revenue that jumped nearly 80% year-over-year to $54.7 million. However, costs skyrocketed, with adjusted EBITDA sinking 146% to negative $11.2 million.
Backlog increased 22%, hitting a quarterly record of $328.3 million. The firm credited the gain to $303.7 million in new awards primarily associated with contracts from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and task order modifications to other contracts.
CEO Firm Expanding Reach Beyond NASA
CEO Steve Altemus said the company’s “proven technologies and expertise are propelling us beyond NASA and cislunar space, expanding our reach into new markets and customers.”
Intuitive Machines sees full-year revenue in the range of $250 million to $300 million. It anticipates positive run-rate adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2025, and it predicts positive adjusted EBITDA for 2026.
The impact of the moon mission failure slashed the stock price in half. However, with today’s 18% advance, Intuitive Machines shares are still about 30% higher over the past year.
submitted by /u/callsonreddit

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All in on JD

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Water897 |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:37:52 PM

Looking to offload these before April 2nd. I had a dream that these went up 5%
submitted by /u/Water897

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The secretary of commerce gives great stock advice 🚀🌕

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Spacedjatt |
Date: 3/24/2025, 11:47:03 PM

submitted by /u/Spacedjatt

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Again new post the Insiders #HaveSpoken

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Key_Elephant_5518 |
Date: 3/25/2025, 12:27:56 AM

Markets Are Rallying – But Don’t Let That Fool You Hey! Happy Monday. Yes, stocks are flying higher today. The Dow jumped almost 400 points before the open. And yes, the mood on Wall Street is suddenly… cheerful. But don’t get too comfortable. Because under the surface, nothing has actually changed. The reason for this bounce? Trump. Tariffs. And a little dose of wishful thinking.
Let’s break down what’s really happening Over the weekend, Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal dropped some reports that lit a fire under the market. Here’s what they said:So now, the narrative is: “Maybe the tariffs won’t be that bad after all.” And just like that, risk is back on. Wall Street’s playing a dangerous game here Make no mistake – the tariffs are still coming. That part hasn’t changed. The only thing that’s shifted is the tone. It’s softer. A bit more “flexible.” But structurally Trump’s whole economic plan is still about dismantling globalization, forcing production back into the U.S., and making imported goods more expensive. That will hit supply chains. Especially the ones that depend on semi-finished goods moving back and forth across borders. And that’s what’s making investors uneasy – even as the market rallies.1
Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs – which are set to be announced April 2 – may not be as brutal as people feared.
There could be exceptions for certain countries.
They may not directly target specific industries like autos, semiconductors, and pharma after all.
And Trump hasn’t reacted to the leaks yet – which is giving investors a strange kind of hope.

Here’s what’s adding fuel to the fire this weekPut all that together, and you’ve got a technical rally. But it’s not about confidence in the economy. It’s just positioning, timing, and a bit of blind optimism. What about earnings? It’s a quiet week.Economic data… same story.
So overall, no major landmines this week, and that’s helping keep the risk-on mood alive.11
Seasonal flows: Historically, from late March through mid-April, capital flows tend to support U.S. equities. It’s been that way since 1928. Nothing magical – just calendar-based inflows.
Pension buying: Goldman Sachs estimates pension funds will buy around $29 billion in U.S. stocks this week as they rebalance at the end of Q1.
CTAs (trend-following funds) are switching: These quant-driven funds were heavily short. Now their models are flipping neutral or bullish – adding more buying pressure across the board.
Tonight: KB Home reports after the close.
Later this week: Dollar Tree, Paychex, Jefferies, Lululemon – a few names, but no heavy hitters.
Nothing that’s likely to shake the market.
Today we got flash PMIs. Manufacturing ticked up a bit (52.7), services slightly weaker (51.2). Nothing shocking.
Friday brings the PCE inflation data – the Fed’s favorite gauge – but expectations are muted.

Meanwhile, China is making moves too According to The Wall Street Journal, China is considering export restrictions aimed at the U.S. That’s a signal: they’re trying to ease tensions, maybe offer a trade olive branch ahead of the April 2 announcements. There’s also talk of a Trump-Xi conversation in April – possibly a symbolic birthday summit (they were born a day apart). That could help dial things down. Or not. Let’s zoom out for a second This rally is happening in the middle of a much bigger shift:You couldn’t make this stuff up. Hardliners are pushing for aggressive trade action – and they’ve said openly, a recession is “worth it” if it means reshaping the U.S. economy.

Foreign investors are pulling money out of U.S. stocks.
The Dow-to-Gold ratio is starting to break down – a pattern that tends to show up before major crises.
Corporate earnings are falling, even as prices climb.
You couldn’t make this stuff up. Hardliners are pushing for aggressive trade action – and they’ve said openly, a recession is “worth it” if it means reshaping the U.S. economy.

It’s not strength. It’s a relief bounce.All it takes is one Trump tweet, one policy change, one unexpected reaction from China – and this whole thing could reverse fast. Keep your guard up. Hope is not a hedge.

The tariff threat isn’t gone, just temporarily softened.
Seasonality and positioning are doing the heavy lifting.
But the deeper risks – falling earnings, policy instability, deglobalization – haven’t gone anywhere.

All it takes is one Trump tweet, one policy change, one unexpected reaction from China – and this whole thing could reverse fast. Keep your guard up. Hope is not a hedge.
submitted by /u/Key_Elephant_5518

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10K Profit in 1 Month trading only SPY Options

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Downtown-Travel-1511 |
Date: 3/25/2025, 1:27:48 AM

Just wanted to share a small win — hit $10K profit in about a month trading only SPY options. I’m still new to options, so this feels like a huge milestone. Not quitting my job or anything, but feeling motivated to keep learning and growing this account. One step at a time.
submitted by /u/Downtown-Travel-1511

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Decided to catch the falling knife on $LUNR

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/keyFLO |
Date: 3/25/2025, 1:47:29 AM

Honestly didn’t know much about the stock other than the glorious fall from $23. Figured if they knew how to somewhat land something on the moon (and maybe learn from their launch mistakes) the stonk would eventually go back up. What do yall think about the company?
submitted by /u/keyFLO

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No need to hedge when I have Kohl’s Cash

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/GuitarCute |
Date: 3/25/2025, 2:00:43 AM

submitted by /u/GuitarCute

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NVDA $15k YOLO — NOT SELLING TILL WE HIT ATH AGAIN

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Jbook30 |
Date: 3/25/2025, 3:48:28 AM

Recession cancelled
submitted by /u/Jbook30

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20K TSLL @ $7.95–TSLA bears–fafo–lol

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/wunfuntin |
Date: 3/25/2025, 4:07:28 AM

submitted by /u/wunfuntin

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144K Earnings YOLO

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/R_Dragoon46 |
Date: 3/25/2025, 4:31:43 AM

Closed my short calls
submitted by /u/R_Dragoon46

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What Are Your Moves Tomorrow, March 25, 2025

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/25/2025, 4:57:32 AM

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Sp500 Futures trading only… how am I doing?

Community: wallstreetbets |
Posted by: /u/Silent-Treat-6512 |
Date: 3/25/2025, 6:07:06 AM

submitted by /u/Silent-Treat-6512

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