![[3월 20일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: TSLA, JPOW, 수익, 애플, 연준](https://temazu.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/photo_2025-03-19_15-06-17.webp "[3월 20일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향[WSB]: TSLA, JPOW, 수익, 애플, 연준")
미국커뮤니티 요약
(상세 내용은 하단부에 첨부합니다.)
오늘 금융 포럼 분위기는 완전 롤러코스터였어! 다들 JPOW, 그러니까 제롬 파월 의장 입에 시선 고정하고 금리 동결 결정에 엄청난 촉각을 곤두세우고 있더라. TSLA(테슬라) 얘기는 뭐, 말할 것도 없지. 옵션으로 돈 번 사람도 있고, 완전 크게 손실 본 사람도 있고… 희비가 엇갈리는 하루였어. 역시 투자는 신중해야 해. 전반적으로 시장 분위기는 좀 불안한 것 같아. 대출 조건이 안 좋아질까 봐 걱정하는 사람들도 있고, EU에서 Apple 상대로 반독점 규제 얘기가 나오는 것도 신경 쓰이는 눈치더라고. 다들 개인적인 투자 경험 공유하면서 울고 웃고 난리였어. 어떤 사람은 오늘 “인생 최고 수익!” 이러고, 어떤 사람은 “한강 갈 뻔…” 이러고. 역시 주식 시장은 예측불허야. 다들 조심하자고!
트레이딩뷰
1개월 프리미엄 무료
+ 15$ 즉시 할인
미국커뮤니티 상세링크
알겠습니다. 다음과 같이 번역해 드릴게요.* “Never forget” → “결코 잊지 마세요” 또는 “잊지 않겠습니다” (상황에 따라 적절하게 선택)* 이모티콘은 있는 그대로 유지 😊
Posted by: /u/author-pendragon |
Date: 3/19/2025, 9:29:00 AM
The Dow Jones Industrial Average finishes the day up 32.03 points, up 4.5%, at the time the largest single day point gain in the Dow’s history.
submitted by /u/author-pendragon
– “고마워요, 일론!”- 이모티콘이 있다면 그대로 전달: 👍 Thanks Elon! 👍
Posted by: /u/aiuddu |
Date: 3/19/2025, 9:30:30 AM
– 1개월 전 249달러에 매수한 TSLA 3월 28일 만기 280달러 콜옵션이 5719달러가 됨 📈
Posted by: /u/somepommy |
Date: 3/19/2025, 10:21:52 AM
submitted by /u/somepommy
“파월이 내 약점을 쥐고 흔드는데, 과연 더 심하게 괴롭힐까?” 😈
Posted by: /u/StickyTip420 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 10:38:44 AM
submitted by /u/StickyTip420
“스냅챗은 왜 아직도 살아남아 있는 걸까?” 🤔
Posted by: /u/zhungzboy |
Date: 3/19/2025, 10:54:13 AM
submitted by /u/zhungzboy
“이번 실적은 어차피 뭘 해도 이미 망했어 🤦♀️”
Posted by: /u/AdamHorn8 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 12:20:08 PM
Tariffs took effect at the beginning of the month and were subsequently ratcheted up, businesses are already paying large sums extra for the same shipments they were getting last quarter… profits are going to take a huge shot. Here’s a good piece in WSJ with a few case studies so far. They rushed to beat some tariffs, but time is up and they’ve been paying big time.
Reiterating my positions: 6/30 SPY 560p, 555p (rolled down from 575, 570)
submitted by /u/AdamHorn8
– “제이 파파 데이!” 🎉
Posted by: /u/betsharks0 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 2:54:26 PM
2025년 3월 19일 일일 토론 스레드 💬
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/19/2025, 6:57:31 PM
submitted by /u/wsbapp
2024년 4분기에 신차의 평균 대출 기간은 67.98개월, 중고차는 67.20개월이었으며, 3분의 2 이상이 72개월이었습니다.
Posted by: /u/Ok_Significance_4008 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 9:11:21 PM
– 옛날 옛적 호랑이 담배 피던 시절 이야기 🕰️- 잊을 수 없는 옛날 이야기 ✨- 시간을 초월한 이야기 ⏳
Posted by: /u/Ornery-Bunch8929 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 9:47:34 PM
– 위험 신호?
Posted by: /u/DYMAXIONman |
Date: 3/19/2025, 10:24:52 PM
* **TLT DD:** TLT 심층 분석 (🔎)
Posted by: /u/awesomeness1024 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 10:31:42 PM
Introduction
Fellow regards, I’m sure we are all aware that the all Powell-ful Jerome will be determining, at the Fed meeting today, how hard a fucking our significant other’s boyfriend will be pumping out. Yet fewer have discussed what move they will be making based on this situation. My thesis is simple – the market has mispriced the chance of a rate cut, underestimating it, and so to take advantage of that, I have am in a long TLT position – a highly-leveragable, long-term government bond ETF. I’ll first explain why I think there’s a higher chance of a rate slash than the market is telling us, specifically diving into why the market has been mispriced. I’ll then move onto why this will cause TLT to rise, and also why I’ve chosen TLT over other related assets.
Why an interest rate cut seems likely to me
Let’s start with some basic economics. Modern monetary theory suggests that the FED uses interest rate hikes to lower inflation at the cost of weakening the economy (raising unemployment), while cuts strengthen the economy while causing inflation. Here’s how our situation looks to me:
First, consider inflation. To be completely honest, I have been working on this thesis since before the release of CPI data for February – personally, I expected annual inflation, from January to February, to fall from 3% to 2.9%. So, I waited until March 10th for a bit of confirmation bias. I was greeted by:
Fig 1.1. CPI for February 2025, all goods
Fig 1.2. 12-month inflation of February 2025, all goods
Inflation has retreated more than expected, falling to 2.8%. One of the many reasons why an interest rate cut initially seemed unlikely was due to concerns of sticky inflation – this has provided evidence that inflation is falling. Granted, fed changes are not instant, and I’ll address fears regarding inflation later on in more detail. However, this data has shown us that inflation isn’t as bad as we thought it’d be, and seems to be falling – evidence in favour of a rate cut happening.
On the other hand, the economy:
Fig 2.1. Consumer sentiment data
Consumer sentiment has completely crashed, falling 10% from Febuary to March, with expectations showing an even bleaker result
Fig 2.2. Consumer spending falls in January 2025
Actual spending has also fallen – for the first time in a long time, people are spending less, despite easing inflation. And while preliminary data has appeared for February showing consumer spending has gone back up by 0.2%, this is still underperforming expectations. A weak consumer base, unwilling to spend, is never a good sign.
Fig 2.3. ISM Manufacturing – PMI Index
Fig 2.4. A more detailed look at the index
The manufacturing index has also seen better days. The manufacturing PMI has fallen from 50.9 to 50.3 in February. Now, in all fairness, this still means there is growth – any score above 50 indicates expansion – however, it means that growth is slowing down and seems to be at an inflection point, where it’ll start contracting again. Looking at the specifics, we also see details that show new orders and employment numbers are contracting, production and exports are seeing reduced growth, all while imports are growing at an accelerated pace. None of these show the signs of a confident economy. But perhaps most important to us degenerates, the stock market worries:
Fig 2.5. Trillions wiped off the stock market in the last 2 weeks
I’m sure all of us remember last week, when our portfolios got bent over by trump refusing to rule out a recession. A recession. I don’t think it can be spelled out any clearer to even the passengers of the shortest of buses – Trump does not seem to mind, and in fact is open accepting of recession
Fig 2.6. Google searches for recession surging
Another decent indicator of recession is also the number of google searches you see for it – clearly, we’re amidst another breakout.
Fig 2.7. Holy fucking shit
The long and short of it is that it’s not looking good. Crashing consumer expectations, cratering stock prices, manufacturing slowdowns – they all paint the picture of a recession coming up. Thus, with inflation not too bad, I believe that the FED should prioritise bringing back economic growth over keeping inflation down.
A mispricing in the market
So, given the sorry state of our economy and comparatively better inflation control, you’d expect the market to price the chance of an interest rate cut at 40%, maybe 20%, maybe very low end, 5%. In reality…
1 per cent
According to a popular betting market, there is just a 1% chance Powell will change the interest rate today. Now of course, the betting market does not automatically correspond to what the stock market is thinking – however, any investor that sees an obvious arbitrage opportunity like this would be able to make a 100-fold return against tens of millions of dollars of liquidity if the stock market disagreed, so it seems to me that this accurately reflects the general sentiment.
Here’s the most important part of my DD that I want to emphasise. In fact, if there’s any takeaway from my DD, let it be this:
I am not telling you Jerome will definitely cut rates tomorrow. In fact, anyone claiming to know for sure what Jerome will do tomorrow either has inside information, is lying, or is grossly misinformed. The first group will never talk to the likes of us, the second group is taking advantage of the likes of us, and the third group belongs among the likes of us.
No, all my DD hinges upon is the idea that the chance of an interest rate cut is higher than 1%. That’s all you need – the thought that interest rate cuts aren’t being priced in correctly, and that’s where any real money is made – mispricings in the market. I personally don’t see how the chance of an interest rate cut is not higher than 5% – if your takeaway from my analysis is that it will be anything above 1%, you too believe, there is a mispricing in the market, and can profit from purchasing TLT.
So this begs the question of why there’s a market mispricing
Why is there a mispricing / “But you’re forgetting about…”
There are a couple ideas that people can bring up to suggest why interest rate cuts are unlikely – I’ll try and cover the main ones and deliver a rebuttal on all of them.
Firstly, there’s concern of inflation from Trump’s tariffs. This is not unfounded – tariffs are inflationary, and perhaps the worry of inflation is too great to cut rates. Firstly, I’d like to point out that many of Trump’s other policies are deflationary: deregulation and government spending cuts are both deflationary, and I don’t think we truly realise how likely “tail-end events” like cutting half of military spending is with an unpredictable guy like Trump – he’s discussed it before. Secondly, Jerome Powell himself has stated, at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business on March 7th, that tariffs may cause a one off price hike, but that “longer-term expectations remain stable and consistent with our 2% inflation goal”. A one-off rise in inflation will not need to be adjusted for – as Powell correctly ascertains, policies should only deal with persistent inflation.
Secondly, some will mention that Powell himself has said before that it is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. I will point out that these quotes are all from before March 10th, before Trump refused to rule out the chance of a recession, before the stock market plummeted and lost trillions of dollars, and before we saw consumer confidence sour so drastically. The situation has changed, and Powell is now much more likely to slash rates.
Finally, the previous point already alludes to this, but one idea is that there’s a conflict between Trump and Powell, in the way that Trump is almost trying to cause economic panic to force Powell into lowering interest rates. People will have you believe that big J, in an attempt to win this dick-swinging contest, will refuse to back down and keep interest rates constant. Maybe, maybe, but what’s more important than winning the measuring contest is preventing the ruin that will come to millions if we fail to cushion economic downturn. Jerome does not want to be the guy who failed to do enough and saw America go through a recession or worse. In fact, I’ll go so far as to say the opposite – I think Powell is likely to fold now due to his past expereince. Many criticisms have been levelled against the man on account of the fact that he didn’t hike rates early enough in 2021, which led to out-of-control inflation. I think that it’s likely that he has learned from this mistake, and I’d err on him acting sooner rather than later on cutting rates.
Most important to keep in mind however, is that maybe you still have doubts about if Jerome is likely to cut interest rates. Keep in mind – we’re not asking if it’s more likely he’ll cut rates or keep them the same. We’re asking if the market is mispriced – if the chance he’ll cut rates is higher than 1%. Any bit of edge is a bullish indication for TLT.
Ok, I think the chance of a cut is higher than 1%. How do I make money off that
Minimising risk. It’s arguably the one of the core tenets of the stock market – the idea of a net worth rising in a safe and predictable straight line is tantalising to all but the most degenerate regard. It’s why so many rich people are willing to take a below-market return from a hedge fund – there’s a team of brilliant Asian quants out there who, instead of curing cancer or perfecting interplanetary travel, are creating the most ridiculous and incomprehensible financial products to tame risky and volatile assets into neat little beta neutral, uncorrelated returns that beat the risk free rate by half a percent, all for the price of a 2/20 fee structure. There’s money to be made in lowering risk.
However, you’re in the wrong subreddit if you’re that brilliant Asian quant. As such, we’ll be doing the opposite – taking the safest investment in the world – US treasury bonds, and jacking it up to the tits in leverage to increase risk, in return for enlarged profits.
Firstly, treasury bonds are the asset of choice because I think that they will have the largest quick movement due to this mispricing in the market. Stock markets react unpredictably to interest rate movements – bonds do not. For those who don’t know, when interest rates fall, all new government bonds issued have lower coupon rates. As such, the old government bonds, with comparatively higher coupon rates, rise in value. This is why “government bonds rise in value when rates are cut, and vice versa”. This is even more so for long-term treasury bonds compared to short-term bills – since the coupon is paid out many more times, the rise in value is exaggerated too.
The liquid variety for long-term treasury bonds is the TLT, an ETF that tracks the bond price. Not only is the liquidity a plus, but the asset being an ETF allows you to buy options on it, letting you purchase different calls until you are sufficiently leveraged for your personal risk tolerance.
Unfortunately, I’m a broke ass college student who has an evil, satanic, institutional broker that doesn’t allow me to buy options. So, I’ve spent about half my money on TLT shares.
My 50 shares of TLT
What Next
Now, of course, I don’t know for sure if Jerome will cut rates. Here are my rough plans based on what happens next:
Rates get cut:
I’d expect TLT to rise sharply, due to the market not expecting this cut. Happy days. Probably sell and throw the money into a global fund, or maybe hold onto the position, anticipating more cuts throughout the year.
Rates don’t move:
Then in this case, TLT probably won’t move significantly, since the market is pretty much expecting this outcome. I’d probably hold onto my position a bit longer, since if he’s not cutting now, he needs to cut by May. This would also probably give me a generally bearish attitude on the US economy and stocks – I think this would be cutting rates a little too late. Probably start throwing more of my money into bonds and international markets.
Either way, I think that this mispricing in the market can be capitalised on. Good luck regards!
tl;dr – Due to a weak economy, I think there’s a higher than 1% chance rates will be cut (the market prediction), therefore, the markets have priced TLT too low
submitted by /u/awesomeness1024
– 어제 223달러 저점에서 마감. 테슬라 풋옵션 좋았음 🤲🏼💎
Posted by: /u/BiggieMoe01 |
Date: 3/19/2025, 11:58:31 PM
– EU 반독점 규제 당국, 애플에 경쟁사에게 개방하라고 명령 🍎
Posted by: /u/PanMan-Dan |
Date: 3/20/2025, 12:56:44 AM
– 연준, 금리 동결.
Posted by: /u/lol54288 |
Date: 3/20/2025, 3:02:31 AM
– 모든 연준 컨퍼런스가 이랬으면 좋겠다 🥹
Posted by: /u/Alexfull23 |
Date: 3/20/2025, 3:41:19 AM
– “3천 달러까지 벌었다가, 그 다음에…”
Posted by: /u/unabayarde |
Date: 3/20/2025, 4:32:30 AM
submitted by /u/unabayarde
“오늘 파월 의장 연설 놓치신 분들을 위해.”
Posted by: /u/DeadLightsOut |
Date: 3/20/2025, 4:47:37 AM
submitted by /u/DeadLightsOut
내일 2025년 3월 20일에 뭐 할 거야? 🗓️
Posted by: /u/wsbapp |
Date: 3/20/2025, 4:57:32 AM
submitted by /u/wsbapp
오늘 풋옵션이랑 콜옵션 둘 다로 돈 벌었네, 역시 J-Papa 덕분이다 😎
Posted by: /u/i_only_like_2d_girls |
Date: 3/20/2025, 4:58:05 AM
submitted by /u/i_only_like_2d_girls
“안녕하세요” – 제롬 파월
Posted by: /u/Spacedjatt |
Date: 3/20/2025, 6:06:51 AM
submitted by /u/Spacedjatt
나는 단순한 사람이라, TSLA 주가가 오를 때마다 풋옵션을 더 사들여. 🤑
Posted by: /u/Leikster |
Date: 3/20/2025, 6:25:58 AM
– 17만 달러까지 벌었다가 전부 날리고 빚까지 졌어. 옵션은 이제 완전히 끝이다. 💸
Posted by: /u/wutang |
Date: 3/20/2025, 6:40:42 AM
백악관에 따르면 트럼프는 여전히 4월 2일에 상호 관세가 발효되기를 바라고 있습니다.
Posted by: /u/callsonreddit |
Date: 3/20/2025, 6:50:49 AM
White House official says tariffs to take effect April 2
Negotiations to lower tariffs needed ahead of April 2Countries to get tariff number on April 2, Bessent says
Bessent sees opportunity to negotiate tariffs lower
USTR wrestling with design of complex reciprocal tariff plan
WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on April 2, the White House said on Tuesday, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that indicated a possible delay in their activation.”The intent is to enact tariffs on April 2,” the official said when asked to clarify Bessent’s comments that countries would get an opportunity to avoid higher tariffs by reducing their own trade barriers.
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“Unless the tariff and non-tariff barriers are equalized, or the U.S. has higher tariffs, the tariffs will go into effect,” the White House official said.Bessent told Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” program that Trump on April 2 would give trading partner countries a reciprocal tariff number that reflects their own rates, non-tariff trade barriers, currency practice and other factors, but could negotiate to avoid a “tariff wall.””On April 2, each country will receive a number that we believe represents their tariffs,” Bessent said. “For some countries, it could be quite low, for some countries, it could be quite high.””We are going to go to them and say, ‘Look, here’s where we think the tariff levels are, non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation, unfair funding, labor suppression, and if you will stop this, we will not put up the tariff wall,'” Bessent said of trading partners.”I’m optimistic that (on) April 2, some of the tariffs may not have to go on because a deal is pre-negotiated, or that once countries receive their reciprocal tariff number, that right after that they will come to us and want to negotiate it down,” Bessent said.Countries that fail to reduce their trade barriers will face steeper tariffs aimed at protecting the U.S. economy, its workers and industries, Bessent added.His remarks were taken to mean that while the proposed duties would be announced on April 2, their implementation could be delayed to allow time for negotiations. But the White House official said any such deals would need to be negotiated in advance to avoid the new tariffs.
DETAILED WORK
The dueling comments illustrate the developing nature of Trump’s new reciprocal tariffs just two weeks out from the April 2 activation deadline.Details of the plan are still being worked out, one White House official said, with much of the technical work on the expected tariffs being led by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, headed by Jamieson Greer, and his staff of some 200 people at USTR.Vice President JD Vance has also played a more active role in the discussions in recent weeks, the official said.A spokesperson for USTR did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the reciprocal tariff plan.Greer and his staff have been wrestling with how to design the reciprocal tariffs given each of the 186 members of the World Customs Organization has different duty rates, sources familiar with the process said.Calculating the tariff rates is complicated by Trump’s vow to reflect the impact of non-tariff barriers, including taxes and other measures that U.S. officials argue give other countries’ firms an unfair advantage.At the Commerce and Treasury departments, political appointees have also run into hiring delays linked to vetting, which has created some negotiating bottlenecks, the same sources familiar with the process said.Financial markets have become increasingly nervous about the impact of Trump’s tariffs and retaliation from trading partners will have on inflation and economic growth. U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday.
TRIGGERING TALKS
The Trump administration expects the tariff announcements to trigger offers by affected countries to reduce their own tariffs or non-tariff measures, the official said, noting that India, for one, was already trying to get ahead of the U.S. moves.After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump met last month, the two nations agreed to resolve tariff rows and work on the first segment of a deal by the fall of 2025, aiming to reach two-way trade of $500 billion by 2030.
Trump often singles out India as the country with the highest average tariff rates, among top trading partners, while European Union countries are criticized for their high 10% car tariff rate, which is four times the 2.5% U.S. passenger car rate, but less than the 25% U.S. tariff on pickup trucks.Bessent said that the Trump administration is particularly focused on the 15% of countries that have the highest tariffs and large trading volumes with the U.S., which he referred to as the “Dirty 15.”These countries also often have regulations governing domestic content or food safety that conspire to keep U.S. products out of their markets, he said.British business and trade minister Jonathan Reynolds came to Washington this week to meet in person with Lutnick and Greer, with both sides talking up the prospects of a bilateral trade deal focused on technology.Summary
Negotiations to lower tariffs needed ahead of April 2Countries to get tariff number on April 2, Bessent says
Bessent sees opportunity to negotiate tariffs lower
USTR wrestling with design of complex reciprocal tariff plan
White House official says tariffs to take effect April 2
Negotiations to lower tariffs needed ahead of April 2Countries to get tariff number on April 2, Bessent says
Bessent sees opportunity to negotiate tariffs lower
USTR wrestling with design of complex reciprocal tariff plan
submitted by /u/callsonreddit
“제이 파월, 투자자들에게 보라색 넥타이 선물 🎁”
Posted by: /u/Hot-You-7366 |
Date: 3/20/2025, 6:55:23 AM
참고링크
투자 관련 참고할 만한 웹사이트 목록입니다.