[3월 20일]-미국주식 커뮤니티동향: 테슬라, 인공지능, 주식, 연방준비제도, 무역 전쟁, 투자

Transcript ➝ Yen Liow Capital Allocators with Ted Siedes | Podcast Interview Transcript

Aravt, unfortunately, shut down in 2022, however, the guidance put out by Liow is timeless and certainly worth your time, since his mental frameworks should be practical to retail and institutional investors, alike—albeit, Liow is much more “under the radar” relative to other folks, but the scarcity of such content only makes each appearance even more intriguing.
Cheers!
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Steel & Aluminum (NUE, STLD, CLF) – Tariffs give them pricing power, though cost inflation is a risk.

Defense & Cybersecurity (LMT, PLTR, CRWD) – “America First” likely means higher defense budgets.

Regional Banks (JPM, BAC, GS) – If deregulation follows, these should gain.

Domestic Infrastructure (CAT, DE, OSK) – If tariffs hurt foreign suppliers, U.S. construction demand rises.

Likely Losers:

Tech Giants (AAPL, NVDA, QCOM, INTC) – Heavy China exposure = supply chain and revenue risks.

Consumer Goods (NKE, WMT, DG) – Imports get pricier, and passing costs to lower-income customers is tough.

Auto & Industrial (TSLA, GM, F, MMM) – Higher input costs + China retaliation = pain.

Agri Exporters (ADM, TSN, BG) – If China targets U.S. farm products again, these get hit.

What I’m watching:
📌 Will China retaliate with rare earth metal export bans? (Impacts TSLA, NVDA, QCOM)
📌 Do inflation expectations rise, pushing Fed policy hawkish? (Bad for rate-sensitive stocks)
📌 Does Trump backtrack on any tariffs? (A la 2019)
📌 Will domestic manufacturing gains outweigh supply chain disruptions?
I’d love to hear counterpoints. Which stocks do you think will outperform or underperform in Trump’s Trade War 2.0?
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Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
Bloomberg market news
StreetInsider news:
Market Check – Possibly why the market is doing what it’s doing including sudden spikes/dips
Reuters aggregated – Global news

If you have a basic question, for example “what is EPS,” then google “investopedia EPS” and click the investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.
Please discuss your portfolios in the Rate My Portfolio sticky..
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
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Energy Policies: The current administration’s “drill, baby, drill” approach aims to bolster fossil fuel production to achieve energy independence. However, this strategy may face challenges as global trends shift towards renewable energy sources.

Environmental Considerations:

EV Adoption: Electric vehicle sales are increasing, potentially impacting long-term oil demand. While EV adoption faces challenges like high costs, their growing popularity could influence Exxon’s market position.

Financial Performance:

Revenue and Earnings: In 2024, Exxon reported revenues of $349.6 billion, a 3.3% increase from 2023. However, net income declined by 6.5% to $33.7 billion, reflecting a profit margin decrease from 11% to 9.6%.
Production Levels: The company achieved its highest production in over a decade, averaging 4.3 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in 2024, a 15.9% increase from the previous year.
Shareholder Returns: Exxon returned $36 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2024, reflecting a commitment to delivering value.

Given these factors, is Exxon Mobil still a viable long-term investment, or do the evolving political, environmental, and market dynamics suggest a need to reassess its role in a diversified portfolio?
Sources:
Source 1 Source 2 Source 3 Source 4
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TOKYO, March 19 (Reuters)Reuters – The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and warned of heightening global economic uncertainty, suggesting the timing of further rate hikes will depend largely on the fallout from potentially higher U.S. tariffs.
But Governor Kazuo Ueda also said rising food costs and stronger-than-expected wage growth could push up underlying inflation, highlighting the central bank’s attention to mounting domestic price pressures.
“Japan’s wage and price conditions are on track, possibly stronger than expected. But the uncertain U.S. and global outlook makes it difficult to assess the potential impact on Japan’s economy,” Ueda told a press conference.
“As such, we would like to look at upcoming data in early April, to reconsider our forecasts,” Ueda said.
He offered few hints on the next rate-hike timing, but said the BOJ did not necessarily need to wait until everything is clear on the impact of U.S. tariffs, in pulling the trigger.

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White House aides are preparing to impose new tariffs on most imports on April 2, laying the groundwork for an escalation in global economic hostilities that President Donald Trump has called “Liberation Day.”
Through his first two months in office, the president has raised tariffs on roughly $800 billion in imports from China, Mexico and Canada, although estimates vary widely. These tariffs have sent the stock market careening and raised the risks of a U.S. recession, while inviting retaliation against domestic industries by trade partners.
Despite the blowback, senior Trump advisers are now publicly pledging to create a new tariff regime that would impose new duties on trade with most countries that trade with the United States. A person familiar with internal planning, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect private deliberations, confirmed administration officials are preparing tariffs on “trillions” of dollars in imports.
The potential to more than double the scope of Trump’s tariffs has alarmed economists and some congressional Republicans, while other White House allies are concerned about the logistical challenges of a complicated new import tax regime. The precise nature of these new duties has spurred extensive discussions at the highest levels of the administration, with Vice President JD Vance, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, White House aide Peter Navarro and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent all playing a role in the talks, the person familiar with the plans said.
“The last two months have already hurt American businesses and consumers, but the April 2 deadline seriously could make all of that look like a tempest in a teapot,” said Joseph Politano, an economic policy analyst at Apricitas Economics. “We don’t know exactly what they’re going to do, but from what they’re saying, it sounds functionally like new tariffs on all U.S. imports.”
The internal preparations suggest Trump remains unbowed in his push to upend the global trade order, despite deepening unease among allies on Capitol Hill and Wall Street and outright fury from overseas. Trump has said the tariffs are necessary to encourage companies to move production back to the U.S. and force concessions from foreign trading partners, but the fallout has rattled investors and consumers, leading to declines in several key economic indicators.
“It’s a liberation day for our country because we’re going to be getting back a lot of the wealth that we so foolishly gave up to other countries, including friend and foe,” Trump told reporters on Monday.
Trump has dubbed the next stage of his trade war “reciprocal tariffs.” The president first embraced the idea during his 2024 presidential campaign, arguing that other countries impose far higher trade barriers on U.S. exports than the U.S. government charges on imports. Trump has said the U.S. should match these tariffs with “reciprocal” duties that he believes will force other countries to lower their duties on U.S.-made products.

More in the article, it’s quite a long one
What’s the play here? Obviously if this goes forward as planned I expect quite the hit to the broader market
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Canada is in advanced talks with the European Union to join the bloc’s new project to expand its military industry, a move that would allow Canada to be part of building European fighter jets and other military equipment at its own industrial facilities.
The budding defense cooperation between Canada and the European Union, which is racing to shore up its industry to lower reliance on the United States, would boost Canada’s military manufacturers and offer the country a new market at a time when its relationship with the United States has become frayed.
Shaken by a crisis in the two nations’ longstanding alliance since President Trump’s election, Canada has started moving closer to Europe. The military industry collaboration with the European Union highlights how traditional U.S. allies are deepening their ties without U.S. participation to insulate themselves from Mr. Trump’s unpredictable moves.
Canada’s new leader, Prime Minister Mark Carney, this week made Paris and London the destinations of his first overseas trip since taking office on Friday, calling Canada “the most European of non-European countries.”
Two officials, one from the European Union and one from Canada, with direct knowledge of the discussions said detailed talks were underway to incorporate Canada into the European Union’s new defense initiative. The goal is to boost the E.U.’s defense industry and eventually offer a credible alternative to the United States, which is now dominant.
Specifically, the officials said, Canada would be able to become part of the European military manufacturing roster, marketing its industrial facilities to build European systems like the Saab Gripen jet, a competitor to the American F-35, which is made by Lockheed Martin.

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